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What is the effect of weather on household electricity consumption? Empirical evidence from Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Jieyi Kang

    (Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge)

  • David Reiner

    (EPRG, CJBS, University of Cambridge)

Abstract

We explore the links between weather variables and residential electricity consumption using high-resolution smart metering data. While weather factors have been used for grid-level electricity demand estimations, the impact of different weather conditions on individual households has not been fully addressed. The deployment of smart meters enables us to analyse weather effects in different periods of the day using hourly panel datasets, which would previously have been impossible. To conduct the analysis, fixed-effects models are employed on half-hourly electricity consumption data from 3827 Irish household meters. We demonstrate that temperature has robust and relatively flat effects on electricity demand across all periods, whereas rain and sunshine duration show greater potential to affect individual behaviour and daily routines. The models show that the most sensitive periods differ for each weather variable. We also test the responses to weather factors for weekends and workdays. Weather sensitivities vary with the day of the week, which might be caused by different household patterns over the course of the week. The methodology employed in this study could be instructive for improving understanding behavioural response in household energy consumption. By using only weather indicators, this approach can be quicker and simpler than traditional methods —such as surveys or questionnaires — in identifying the periods when households are more responsive.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jieyi Kang & David Reiner, 2021. "What is the effect of weather on household electricity consumption? Empirical evidence from Ireland," Working Papers EPRG2112, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2112
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    2. Cansino, José M. & Dugo, Víctor & Román-Collado, Rocío & Ribbot, Elisset, 2025. "Determinants of electricity demand in Spain by climatic zones," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Entezari, Negin & Fuinhas, José Alberto, 2024. "Measuring wholesale electricity price risk from climate change: Evidence from Portugal," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Yang, Shubo & Jahanger, Atif & Awan, Ashar, 2024. "Temperature variation and urban electricity consumption in China: Implications for demand management and planning," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Gang Chen & Qingchang Hu & Jin Wang & Xu Wang & Yuyu Zhu, 2023. "Machine-Learning-Based Electric Power Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-21, July.
    6. Chen, Haitao & Zhang, Bin & Liu, Hua & Cao, Jiguo, 2024. "The inequality in household electricity consumption due to temperature change: Data driven analysis with a function-on-function linear model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    7. Piersilvio De Bortoli & Davide Ferrari & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2026. "Model selection confidence sets for time series models with applications to electricity load data," Papers 2602.16527, arXiv.org.
    8. Botman, Lola & Lago, Jesus & Becker, Thijs & Vanthournout, Koen & Moor, Bart De, 2025. "A global probabilistic approach for short-term forecasting of individual households electricity consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).
    9. Atif Maqbool Khan & Artur Wyrwa, 2024. "A Survey of Quantitative Techniques in Electricity Consumption—A Global Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-38, September.
    10. Li, Jiayi & Luo, Sumei & Zhou, Guangyou, 2023. "Electronic payment, natural environment and household consumption: Evidence from China household finance survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Humberto Verdejo & Emiliano Fucks Jara & Tomas Castillo & Cristhian Becker & Diego Vergara & Rafael Sebastian & Guillermo Guzmán & Francisco Tobar & Juan Zolezzi, 2023. "Analysis and Modeling of Residential Energy Consumption Profiles Using Device-Level Data: A Case Study of Homes Located in Santiago de Chile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-32, December.
    12. Arshad, Selvia & Beyer, Robert C.M., 2023. "Tracking economic fluctuations with electricity consumption in Bangladesh," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    13. Li, Lanlan & Yuan, Xiaomeng & Li, Jingjing & Li, Ke, 2024. "Assessing the effect of increasing block tariffs for residential natural gas in Hefei City, China," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    14. Ye, Yuxiang & Koch, Steven F. & Ye, Xianming, 2025. "The effect of temperature on household hourly electricity consumption: Evidence from South Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    15. Longden, Thomas, 2025. "Temperature-related energy insecurity and heating degree thresholds for prepayment gas customers in England and Wales," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    16. Wang, Yishi & Jin, Andrew S. & Sanders, Kelly T., 2026. "A systematic review of literature utilizing residential smart meter data," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    17. Chengtao Deng & Zixin Guo & Xiaoyue Huang & Tao Shen, 2023. "The Dynamic Nexus of Fossil Energy Consumption, Temperature and Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Simultaneous Equation Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-17, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • R22 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Other Demand
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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