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The Non-linear Link between Electricity Consumption and Temperature in Europe: a Threshold Panel Approach

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  • Marie Bessec
  • Julien FOUQUAU

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between electricity demand and temperature in the European Union. We address this issue by means of a panel threshold regression model on 15 European countries over the last two decades. Our results confirm the non-linearity of the link between electricity consumption and temperature found in more limited geographical areas in previous studies. By distinguishing between North and South countries, we also find that this non-linear pattern is more pronounced in the warm countries. Finally, rolling regressions show that the sensitivity of electricity consumption to temperature in summer has increased in the recent period.
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Suggested Citation

  • Marie Bessec & Julien FOUQUAU, 2007. "The Non-linear Link between Electricity Consumption and Temperature in Europe: a Threshold Panel Approach," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1636, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
  • Handle: RePEc:leo:wpaper:1636
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    3. Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin, 2006. "Threshold Effects in the Public Capital Productivity: an International Panel Smooth Transition Approach," Post-Print halshs-00257487, HAL.
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    5. Beenstock, Michael & Goldin, Ephraim & Nabot, Dan, 1999. "The demand for electricity in Israel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 168-183, April.
    6. Theodoros Zachariadis, 2007. "Energy Policy in Cyprus: Outlook and Major Challenges," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 1(1), pages 27-48, June.
    7. Sailor, David J. & Muñoz, J.Ricardo, 1997. "Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A.—Methodology and results for eight states," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 987-998.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/120 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
    10. Ghislaine Destais & Julien Fouquau & Christophe Hurlin, 2007. "Economic Development and Energy Intensity: A Panel Data Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jan Horst Keppler & Régis Bourbonnais & Jacques Girod (ed.), The Econometrics of Energy Systems, chapter 5, pages 98-120, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin, 2006. "Threshold Effects of the Public Capital Productivity : An International Panel Smooth Transition Approach," Working Papers halshs-00008056, HAL.
    12. Moral-Carcedo, Julian & Vicens-Otero, Jose, 2005. "Modelling the non-linear response of Spanish electricity demand to temperature variations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 477-494, May.
    13. Sailor, David J, 2001. "Relating residential and commercial sector electricity loads to climate—evaluating state level sensitivities and vulnerabilities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 645-657.
    14. Bigano, Andrea & Bosello, Francesco & Marano, Giuseppe, 2006. "Energy Demand and Temperature: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12117, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    15. Henley, Andrew & Peirson, John, 1997. "Non-linearities in Electricity Demand and Temperature: Parametric versus Non-parametric Methods," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(1), pages 149-162, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-linear; Link; Electricity; Consumption; Temperature; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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