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The Non-linear Link between Electricity Consumption and Temperature in Europe: a Threshold Panel Approach

Listed author(s):
  • Marie Bessec
  • Julien FOUQUAU

    ()

This paper investigates the relationship between electricity demand and temperature in the European Union. We address this issue by means of a panel threshold regression model on 15 European countries over the last two decades. Our results confirm the non-linearity of the link between electricity consumption and temperature found in more limited geographical areas in previous studies. By distinguishing between North and South countries, we also find that this non-linear pattern is more pronounced in the warm countries. Finally, rolling regressions show that the sensitivity of electricity consumption to temperature in summer has increased in the recent period.

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Paper provided by Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans in its series LEO Working Papers / DR LEO with number 1636.

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Date of creation: 2007
Handle: RePEc:leo:wpaper:1636
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Web page: http://data.leo-univ-orleans.fr/RePEc/leo/
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  1. Andres Gonzalez & Timo Terasvirta & Dick van Dijk, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," Research Paper Series 165, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Moral-Carcedo, Julian & Vicens-Otero, Jose, 2005. "Modelling the non-linear response of Spanish electricity demand to temperature variations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 477-494, May.
  3. Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin, 2006. "Threshold Effects in the Public Capital Productivity: an International Panel Smooth Transition Approach," Post-Print halshs-00257483, HAL.
  4. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
  5. Theodoros Zachariadis, 2007. "Energy Policy in Cyprus: Outlook and Major Challenges," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 1(1), pages 27-48, June.
  6. Sailor, David J. & Muñoz, J.Ricardo, 1997. "Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A.—Methodology and results for eight states," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 987-998.
  7. G. Destais & Julien Fouquau & C. Hurlin, 2006. "Economic Development and Energy Intensity: a Panel Data Analysis," Post-Print halshs-00222798, HAL.
  8. Andrea Bigano & Francesco Bosello & Giuseppe Marano, 2006. "Energy Demand and Temperature: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," Working Papers 2006.112, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  9. Beenstock, Michael & Goldin, Ephraim & Nabot, Dan, 1999. "The demand for electricity in Israel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 168-183, April.
  10. Xiao, Ni & Zarnikau, Jay & Damien, Paul, 2007. "Testing functional forms in energy modeling: An application of the Bayesian approach to U.S. electricity demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 158-166, March.
  11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/120 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
  13. Sailor, David J, 2001. "Relating residential and commercial sector electricity loads to climate—evaluating state level sensitivities and vulnerabilities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 645-657.
  14. Henley, Andrew & Peirson, John, 1997. "Non-linearities in Electricity Demand and Temperature: Parametric versus Non-parametric Methods," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(1), pages 149-162, February.
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