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Damage Costs of Climate Change through Intensification of Tropical Cyclone Activities: An Application of FUND

  • Tol, Richard S. J.

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

  • Narita, Daiju

    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, Germany)

  • Anthoff, David

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

Climate change may intensify tropical cyclone activities and amplify their negative economic effects. We simulate the direct economic impact of tropical cyclones enhanced by climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.4. The results show that in the base case, the direct economic damage of tropical cyclones ascribed to the effect of climate change amounts to $19 billion globally (almost the same level as the baseline (current) global damage of tropical cyclones) in the year 2100, while the ratio to world GDP is 0.006%. The US and China account for much of the absolute damage, whereas small island states incur the largest damage if evaluated as the share to GDP. The results also show that they are sensitive to the choice of baseline and of the wind-speed elasticity of storm damage.

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Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP259.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp259
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  1. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2005. "Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters," Working Papers 05-04, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
  3. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
  4. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39, May.
  5. David Anthoff & Cameron Hepburn & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change," Working Papers FNU-121, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2006.
  6. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "Tropics, Germs, and Crops: How Endowments Influence Economic Development," Working Papers 15, Center for Global Development.
  7. Tol, Richard S. J., 2001. "Equitable cost-benefit analysis of climate change policies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 71-85, January.
  8. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
  9. Richard S. J. Tol, 1999. "The Marginal Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 61-81.
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