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The impact of climate change on global tropical storm damages

Author

Listed:
  • Mendelsohn, Robert
  • Emanuel, Kerry
  • Chonabayashi, Shun

Abstract

This paper constructs an integrated assessment model of tropical cyclones in order to quantify the impact that climate change may have on tropical cyclone damages in countries around the world. The paper relies on a tropical cyclone generator in each ocean and several climate models to predict tropical cyclones with and without climate change. A damage model is constructed to compute the resulting damage when a cyclone strikes each country. Economic development is expected to double global tropical cyclone damages because more will be in harm's way. Climate change is expected to double global damage again, causing an additional $54 billion of damage per year. The damage is projected to be concentrated in North America and eastern Asia but many Caribbean islands will suffer the highest damages per unit of GDP. Most of the increased damage will be caused by rare but very powerful storms.

Suggested Citation

  • Mendelsohn, Robert & Emanuel, Kerry & Chonabayashi, Shun, 2011. "The impact of climate change on global tropical storm damages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5562, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5562
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tol, Richard S. J. & Narita, Daiju & Anthoff, David, 2008. "Damage Costs of Climate Change through Intensification of Tropical Cyclone Activities: An Application of FUND," Papers WP259, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Chort, Isabelle & de la Rupelle, Maëlys, 2017. "Managing the Impact of Climate Change on Migration: Evidence from Mexico," GLO Discussion Paper Series 78, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. repec:spr:nathaz:v:88:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2885-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun & Upmanu Lall & Zhi-Fu Mi & Jun He & Yi-Ming Wei, 2016. "China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 169-181, November.
    4. Elliott, Robert J.R. & Strobl, Eric & Sun, Puyang, 2015. "The local impact of typhoons on economic activity in China: A view from outer space," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-66.
    5. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012. "A cost effective solution to reduce disaster losses in developing countries : hydro-meteorological services, early warning, and evacuation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6058, The World Bank.
    6. Vinod Thomas & Jose Albert & Cameron Hepburn, 2014. "Contributors to the frequency of intense climate disasters in Asia-Pacific countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 381-398, October.
    7. James Neumann & Kerry Emanuel & Sai Ravela & Lindsay Ludwig & Paul Kirshen & Kirk Bosma & Jeremy Martinich, 2015. "Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 337-349, March.
    8. S. Seo, 2014. "Estimating Tropical Cyclone Damages Under Climate Change in the Southern Hemisphere Using Reported Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(3), pages 473-490, July.
    9. Lazzaroni, Sara & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2014. "Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 333-346.
    10. Ming-Zhu Wang & Marco Amati & Frank Thomalla, 2012. "Understanding the vulnerability of migrants in Shanghai to typhoons," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 1189-1210, February.
    11. Noy, I, 2012. "Investing in Disaster Risk Reduction: A Global Fund," Working Paper Series 2390, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Laura A. Bakkensen & Robert O. Mendelsohn, 2016. "Risk and Adaptation: Evidence from Global Hurricane Damages and Fatalities," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 555-587.
    13. Ramón E. López & Vinod Thomas & Pablo Troncoso, 2015. "Climate Change and Natural Disasters," Working Papers wp414, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    14. Noy, Ilan, 2015. "Natural disasters and climate change in the Pacific island countries: New non-monetary measurements of impacts," Working Paper Series 4200, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    15. World Bank & United Nations, 2010. "Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters : The Economics of Effective Prevention," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2512.
    16. Bosello, Francesco & De Cian, Enrica, 2014. "Climate change, sea level rise, and coastal disasters. A review of modeling practices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 593-605.
    17. Gary Yohe & Chris Hope, 2013. "Some thoughts on the value added from a new round of climate change damage estimates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 451-465, April.
    18. Ilan Noy & Christopher Edmonds, 2016. "The Economic and Fiscal Burdens of Disasters in the Pacific," CESifo Working Paper Series 6237, CESifo Group Munich.
    19. Matthew Ranson & Carolyn Kousky & Matthias Ruth & Lesley Jantarasami & Allison Crimmins & Lisa Tarquinio, 2014. "Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 227-241, November.
    20. Francesco Bosello & Shouro Dasgupta, 2015. "Development, Climate Change Adaptation, and Maladaptation: Some Econometric Evidence," Working Papers 2015.97, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    21. Andrea Staid & Seth Guikema & Roshanak Nateghi & Steven Quiring & Michael Gao, 2014. "Simulation of tropical cyclone impacts to the U.S. power system under climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 535-546, December.
    22. Corey Lang & John David Ryder, 2016. "The effect of tropical cyclones on climate change engagement," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 625-638, April.
    23. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, 2016. "Gone with the Wind; Estimating Hurricane and Climate Change Costs in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 16/199, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change Economics; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Hazard Risk Management; Science of Climate Change; Global Environment Facility;

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