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Natural disasters in a two-sector model of endogenous growth

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  • Ikefuji, Masako
  • Horii, Ryo

Abstract

Using an endogenous growth model with physical and human capital accumulation, this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth when the use of a polluting input (e.g., fossil fuels) intensifies the risk of capital destruction through natural disasters. We find that growth is sustainable only if the tax rate on the polluting input increases over time. The long-term rate of economic growth follows an inverted V-shaped curve relative to the growth rate of the environmental tax, and it is maximized by the least aggressive tax policy of those that asymptotically eliminate the use of polluting inputs. Unavailability of insurance can accelerate or decelerate the growth-maximizing speed of the tax increase depending on the relative significance of the risk premium and precautionary savings effects. Welfare is maximized under a milder environmental tax policy, especially when the pollutants accumulate gradually.

Suggested Citation

  • Ikefuji, Masako & Horii, Ryo, 2012. "Natural disasters in a two-sector model of endogenous growth," MPRA Paper 37825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37825
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hiroaki Sakamoto & Masako Ikefuji & Jan R. Magnus, 2017. "Adaptation for mitigation," Discussion papers e-16-014, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    2. Masako Ikefuji & Jan Magnus & Hiroaki Sakamoto, 2014. "Adaptation for Mitigation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-126/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Prudence Dato, 2017. "Energy Transition Under Irreversibility: A Two-Sector Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(3), pages 797-820, November.
    4. Ryo Horii & Masako Ikefuji, 2014. "Environment and Growth," DSSR Discussion Papers 21, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    5. Erickson, Gary M., 2014. "Advertising, economic development, and global warming," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 119-123.
    6. Takumi Motoyama, 2016. "From Physical to Human Capital Accumulation with Pollution," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 16-03, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    7. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2014. "Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 92-106.
    8. Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2013. "Gravity Model Applications and Macroeconomic Perspectives," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 48.
    9. Motoyama, Takumi, 2017. "Optimal disaster-preventive expenditure in a dynamic and stochastic model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 28-47.
    10. Lucas Bretschger & Alexandra Vinogradova, 2014. "Going beyond tradition:Growth and Mitigation Policies with Uncertain Climate Damage," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 14/202, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    11. Hosoya, Kei, 2016. "Recovery from natural disaster: A numerical investigation based on the convergence approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 410-420.
    12. Lucas Bretschger & Alexandra Vinogradova, 2014. "Growth and Mitigation Policies with Uncertain Climate Damage," CESifo Working Paper Series 5085, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Bretschger, Lucas & Suphaphiphat, Nujin, 2014. "Effective climate policies in a dynamic North–South model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 59-77.
    14. Bretschger, Lucas, 2015. "Greening Economy, Graying Society," MPRA Paper 66218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Takumi Motoyama, 2015. "Optimal disaster-preventive expenditure in a dynamic and stochastic model," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 15-03-Rev., Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), revised Oct 2016.
    16. Can Askan Mavi, 2017. "Can a hazardous event be another source of poverty traps ?," Working Papers 2017.14, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    17. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2015. "Oscillations in a Growth Model with Capital, Technology and Environment with Exogenous Shocks," Academicus International Scientific Journal, Entrepreneurship Training Center Albania, issue 12, pages 73-93, July.
    18. AKAO Ken-Ichi & SAKAMOTO Hiroaki, 2013. "A Theory of Disasters and Long-run Growth," Discussion papers 13061, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    human capital; global warming; environmental tax; nonbalanced growth path; precautionary saving; risk premium;

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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