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Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    (World Bank - World Bank)

  • Patrice Dumas

    (LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres)

Abstract

It has been suggested that disasters might have positive economic consequences, through the accelerated replacement of capital. This possibility is referred to as the productivity effect. This effect is investigated using a model with embodied technical change. in this framework, disasters can influence the production level but cannot influence the growth rate, in the same way than the saving ratio in a Solow-like model. Depending on reconstruction quality, indeed, accounting for embodied technical change can either decrease or increase disaster costs, but is never able to turn disasters into positive events. Moreover, a better but slower reconstruction amplifies the short-term consequences of disasters, but pays off over the long-term. Regardless, the productivity effect cannot prevent the existence of a bifurcation when disaster damages exceed the reconstruction capacity, potentially leading to poverty traps. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Hallegatte & Patrice Dumas, 2009. "Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change," Post-Print hal-00719266, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00719266
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.06.011
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://enpc.hal.science/hal-00719266
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