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Endogenous Business Cycles and the Economic Response to Exogenous Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement and Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie)

  • Michael Ghil

    (University of California)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the macroeconomic response to exogenous shocks, namely natural disasters and stochastic productivity shocks. To do so, we make use of an endogenous business cycle model in which cyclical behavior arises from the investment–profit instability; the amplitude of this instability is constrained by the increase in labor costs and the inertia of production capacity and thus results in a finite-amplitude business cycle. This model is found to exhibit a larger response to natural disasters during expansions than during recessions, because the exogenous shock amplifies pre-existing disequilibria when occurring during expansions, while the existence of unused resources during recessions allows for damping the shock. Our model also shows a higher output variability in response to stochastic productivity shocks during expansions than during recessions. This finding is at odds with the classical real-cycle theory, but it is supported by the analysis of quarterly U.S. Gross Domestic Product series; the latter series exhibits, on average, a variability that is 2.6 times larger during expansions than during recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Hallegatte & Michael Ghil, 2007. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Economic Response to Exogenous Shocks," Working Papers 2007.20, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Endogenous Growth, Price Stability And Market Disequilibria," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 3-34, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Natural disasters; Productivity shocks; Output variability;

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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