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Exogenous Macroeconomic Shocks As Contemporary Business Cycle Determinants

Author

Listed:
  • Veniamin Todorov

    (University of Economics)

Abstract

The article presents the results of a research that aims to test the hypothesis that exogenous macroeconomic shocks affect present-day business cycle dynamics in a way that extends beyond the COVID-19 pandemic and the military conflict in Ukraine. The analysis covers the present-day manifestation of three key types of exogenous shocks - health shocks, oil price shocks and natural disasters. The research showed a lot of evidence that corroborates the hypothesis and hence it is confirmed. The three types of exogenous shocks have played an important role not only for the last two years, but also beyond this time horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Veniamin Todorov, 2022. "Exogenous Macroeconomic Shocks As Contemporary Business Cycle Determinants," Economic Archive, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 3 Year 20, pages 3-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:dat:earchi:y:2022:i:3:p:3-17
    as

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10610/4698
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exogenous shocks; health shocks; oil price shocks; natural disasters; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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