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Productivity, energy prices, and the Great Moderation: a new link

  • Rajeev Dhawan
  • Karsten Jeske
  • Pedro Silos

We study how total factor productivity (TFP), energy prices, and the Great Moderation are linked. First we estimate a joint stochastic process for the energy price and TFP and establish that until the second quarter of 1982, energy prices negatively affected productivity. This spillover has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, the disappearance of this energy-productivity spillover generates the significantly lower volatility of output and its components. Specifically, the change in the joint stochastic process accounts for close to 70 percent of the moderation in output volatility.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2008-11.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2008-11
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  1. Andres Arias & Gary D. Hansen & Lee E. Ohanian, 2006. "Why Have Business Cycle Fluctuations Become Less Volatile?," NBER Working Papers 12079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(4), pages 595-614, October.
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  12. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1999. "Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Responses to Oil Price Changes," NBER Working Papers 7095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Mark A. Hooker, 1999. "Oil and the macroeconomy revisited," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  18. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  22. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "Accuracy of stochastic perturbation methods: The case of asset pricing models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 979-999, June.
  23. Pedro Silos & Karsten Jeske & Rajeev Dhawan, 2008. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," 2008 Meeting Papers 877, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  24. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2008. "Energy Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Consumer Durables," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1357-1377, October.
  25. Polgreen, Linnea & Silos, Pedro, 2009. "Crude substitution: The cyclical dynamics of oil prices and the skill premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 409-418, April.
  26. Herrera, Ana María & Pesavento, Elena, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The “Great Moderation”," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 107-137, February.
  27. Linnea Polgreen & Pedro Silos, 2006. "Crude substitution: the cyclical dynamics of oil prices and the college premium," Working Paper 2006-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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