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Productivity, energy prices, and the Great Moderation: a new link

  • Rajeev Dhawan
  • Karsten Jeske
  • Pedro Silos

We study how total factor productivity (TFP), energy prices, and the Great Moderation are linked. First we estimate a joint stochastic process for the energy price and TFP and establish that until the second quarter of 1982, energy prices negatively affected productivity. This spillover has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, the disappearance of this energy-productivity spillover generates the significantly lower volatility of output and its components. Specifically, the change in the joint stochastic process accounts for close to 70 percent of the moderation in output volatility.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series FRB Atlanta Working Paper with number 2008-11.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2008-11
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  2. Dhawan, Rajeev & Jeske, Karsten, 2008. "What determines the output drop after an energy price increase: Household or firm energy share?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 202-205, December.
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  13. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
  14. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2006. "Energy price shocks and the macroeconomy: the role of consumer durables," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  16. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2006. "Monetary policy, oil shocks, and TFP: accounting for the decline in U.S. volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 873, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  22. Pedro Silos & Karsten Jeske & Rajeev Dhawan, 2008. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," 2008 Meeting Papers 877, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  23. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
  24. Linnea Polgreen & Pedro Silos, 2006. "Crude substitution: the cyclical dynamics of oil prices and the college premium," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  25. Herrera, Ana María & Pesavento, Elena, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The “Great Moderation”," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 107-137, February.
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  29. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-91, April.
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