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Investigating the U.S. Oil-Macroeconomy Nexus using Rolling Impulse Responses

  • Marc Gronwald

This paper is concerned with the apparent change in the U.S. oil price-macroeconomy relationship. It is investigated to what extent this change can be accounted for by the large oil price surges witnessed in the 1970s. The innovative approach of rolling impulse responses is applied and both the aggregate and the industry-level is considered. It is found that the first oil crisis has an “persistent” effect in the sense that this incident still dominates long-run results and superimposes both subsample and industry-specifics. The results, furthermore, suggest that the Great Moderation can essentially be explained by the non-occurrence of large oil shocks after the mid 1980s and that oil is less important for the economy than many researchers still believe.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-07/cesifo1_wp2702.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2702.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2702
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  1. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
  2. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32.
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  4. Marc Gronwald, 2008. "Large Oil Shocks and the US Economy: Infrequent Incidents with Large Effects," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 151-172.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0735, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Kilian, Lutz & Park, Cheolbeom, 2007. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2007. "The industrial impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0731, Banco de Espa�a.
  10. Liu, Na & Ang, B.W., 2007. "Factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry: Energy intensity versus product mix," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 609-635, July.
  11. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses About the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
  13. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
  14. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
  15. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
  16. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
  17. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2004. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0362, European Central Bank.
  18. Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.
  19. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
  20. Herrera, Ana María & Pesavento, Elena, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The “Great Moderation”," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 107-137, February.
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