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Crude substitution: The cyclical dynamics of oil prices and the skill premium

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  • Polgreen, Linnea
  • Silos, Pedro

Abstract

At the business cycle frequency, energy prices and the skill premium display a strong, negative correlation. This fact is robust to different de-trending procedures. Identifying exogenous shocks to oil prices using the Hoover-Perez [1994. Post hoc ergo propter once more: an evaluation of [`]Does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin. Journal of Monetary Econonmics 34, 47-73] dates, shows that the skill premium falls in response to such a shock. The estimation of the parameters of an aggregate technology that uses, among other inputs, energy and heterogeneous skills, demonstrates that capital-skill and capital-energy complementarity are responsible for this correlation. As energy prices rise, the use of capital decreases and the demand for unskilled labor--relative to skilled labor--increases, lowering the skill premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Polgreen, Linnea & Silos, Pedro, 2009. "Crude substitution: The cyclical dynamics of oil prices and the skill premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 409-418, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:3:p:409-418
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Kehrig & Nicolas L. Ziebarth, 2017. "The Effects of the Real Oil Price on Regional Wage Dispersion," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, pages 115-148.
    2. René Morissette & Ping Ching Winnie Chan & Yuqian Lu, 2015. "Wages, Youth Employment, and School Enrollment: Recent Evidence from Increases in World Oil Prices," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(1), pages 222-253.
    3. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 715-724, July.
    4. Javier Ordóñez & Hector Sala & José I. Silva, 2010. "Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations," Working Papers wpdea1005, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    5. Matthias Kehrig & Nicolas Vincent, 2013. "Disentangling Labor Supply and Demand Shifts Using Spatial Wage Dispersion: The Case of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 13-57, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Federico S. Mandelman & Andrei Zlate, 2010. "Immigration, remittances, and business cycles," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Mandelman, Federico S. & Zlate, Andrei, 2012. "Immigration, remittances and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 196-213.
    8. Javier Ordóñez & Hector Sala & José I. Silva, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 89-118.
    9. Chan, Winnie & Lu, Yuqian & Morissette, Rene, 2014. "Wages, Youth Employment, and School Enrollment: Recent Evidence from Increases in World Oil Prices," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2014353e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    10. Anil Kumar, 2017. "Impact of oil booms and busts on human capital investment in the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 1089-1114.
    11. Durdu, C. Bora & Nunes, Ricardo & Sapriza, Horacio, 2013. "News and sovereign default risk in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-17.

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