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Crude substitution: The cyclical dynamics of oil prices and the skill premium

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  • Polgreen, Linnea
  • Silos, Pedro

Abstract

At the business cycle frequency, energy prices and the skill premium display a strong, negative correlation. This fact is robust to different de-trending procedures. Identifying exogenous shocks to oil prices using the Hoover-Perez [1994. Post hoc ergo propter once more: an evaluation of [`]Does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin. Journal of Monetary Econonmics 34, 47-73] dates, shows that the skill premium falls in response to such a shock. The estimation of the parameters of an aggregate technology that uses, among other inputs, energy and heterogeneous skills, demonstrates that capital-skill and capital-energy complementarity are responsible for this correlation. As energy prices rise, the use of capital decreases and the demand for unskilled labor--relative to skilled labor--increases, lowering the skill premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Polgreen, Linnea & Silos, Pedro, 2009. "Crude substitution: The cyclical dynamics of oil prices and the skill premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 409-418, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:3:p:409-418
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    1. Matthias Kehrig & Nicolas L. Ziebarth, 2017. "The Effects of the Real Oil Price on Regional Wage Dispersion," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 115-148, April.
    2. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 715-724, July.
    3. Katia Gallegos Torres & Jakob Lehr, 2026. "The Labor Market Impact of the Energy Crisis: Evidence from Germany," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_730, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    4. Musa Orak, 2017. "Capital-Task Complementarity and the Decline of the U.S. Labor Share of Income," International Finance Discussion Papers 1200, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Abbritti, Mirko & Consolo, Agostino, 2024. "Labour market skills, endogenous productivity and business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    6. Mandelman, Federico S. & Zlate, Andrei, 2012. "Immigration, remittances and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 196-213.
    7. Javier Ordóñez & Hector Sala & José I. Silva, 2010. "Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations," Working Papers wpdea1005, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    8. Lu, Yuqian & Chan, Winnie & Morissette, Rene, 2014. "Wages, Youth Employment, and School Enrollment: Recent Evidence from Increases in World Oil Prices," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2014353e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
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    10. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Hjelm, Linnéa, 2026. "The labour market in the euro area: and yet, it moves!," Working Paper Series 3180, European Central Bank.
    11. René Morissette & Ping Ching Winnie Chan & Yuqian Lu, 2015. "Wages, Youth Employment, and School Enrollment: Recent Evidence from Increases in World Oil Prices," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(1), pages 222-253.
    12. Matthias Kehrig & Nicolas Vincent, 2013. "Disentangling Labor Supply and Demand Shifts Using Spatial Wage Dispersion: The Case of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 13-57, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    13. Ryan Hanson & Ana María Herrera, 2025. "The Effect of Oil News Shocks on Job Creation and Destruction," Working Papers 25-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
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    15. Anil Kumar, 2017. "Impact of oil booms and busts on human capital investment in the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1089-1114, May.

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