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Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

  • Javier Ordóñez

    ()

    (Departament d'Economia, Universitat Jaume I de Castelló)

  • Hector Sala

    ()

    (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)

  • José I. Silva

    ()

    (Departament d'Economia, Universitat de Girona)

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides’ (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

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File URL: http://www.ecap.uab.es/RePEc/doc/wpdea1005.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona in its series Working Papers with number wpdea1005.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea1005
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  1. Helge Braun & Reinout De Bock & Riccardo DiCecio, 2009. "Supply shocks, demand shocks, and labor market fluctuations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 155-178.
  2. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, June.
  3. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2007. "The cyclicality of separation and job finding rates," Working Papers 07-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
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  7. José I. Silva & Manuel Toledo, 2013. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: The Role Of Matching Costs Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 836-843, 01.
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  9. Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
  10. Granger, Clive W J, 1993. "Strategies for Modelling Nonlinear Time-Series Relationships," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(206), pages 233-38, September.
  11. Silva, José Ignacio & Toledo, Manuel, 2009. "Labor Turnover Costs And The Cyclical Behavior Of Vacancies And Unemployment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S1), pages 76-96, May.
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  13. Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 1998. "Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-36, May.
  14. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
  15. Sollis, Robert, 2009. "A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in Nordic countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 118-125, January.
  16. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses About the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Polgreen, Linnea & Silos, Pedro, 2009. "Crude substitution: The cyclical dynamics of oil prices and the skill premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 409-418, April.
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  22. Toledo Manuel & Silva José I, 2010. "Investment-Specific Shocks and Cyclical Fluctuations in a Frictional Labor Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-39, April.
  23. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  24. Michael W. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & Gary Solon, 2007. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 12853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1994. "Models of Energy Use: Putty-Putty versus Putty-Clay," NBER Working Papers 4833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  27. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
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