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Supply shocks, demand shocks, and labor market fluctuations

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We use structural vector autoregressions to analyze the responses of worker flows, job flows, vacancies, and hours to shocks. We identify demand and supply shocks by restricting the short-run responses of output and the price level. On the demand side we disentangle a monetary and non-monetary shock by restricting the response of the interest rate. The responses of labor market variables are similar across shocks: expansionary shocks increase job creation, the hiring rate, vacancies, and hours. They decrease job destruction and the separation rate. Supply shocks have more persistent effects than demand shocks. Demand and supply shocks are equally important in driving business cycle fluctuations of labor market variables. Our findings for demand shocks are robust to alternative identification schemes involving the response of labor productivity at different horizons and an alternative specification of the VAR. However, supply shocks identified by restricting productivity generate a higher fraction of responses inconsistent with standard search and matching models.

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  • Helge Braun & Reinout De Bock & Riccardo DiCecio, 2007. "Supply shocks, demand shocks, and labor market fluctuations," Working Papers 2007-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2007-015
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2007.015
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    1. Meradj Morteza Pouraghdam, 2016. "Three essays on the role of frictions in the economy [Trois essais sur le rôle du désaccord en économie]," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) tel-03498781, HAL.
    2. Shigeru Fujita, 2011. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 89-121, January/F.
    3. Gomis, Roger. & Khatiwada, Sameer., 2016. "Firm dynamics and business cycle what doesn't kill you makes you stronger?," ILO Working Papers 994909323402676, International Labour Organization.
    4. Fabio Canova & David Lopez-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2009. "The ins and outs of unemployment: An analysis conditional on technology shocks," Economics Working Papers 1213, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2012.
    5. Madeira, Carlos & Salazar, Leonardo, 2023. "The impact of monetary policy on a labor market with heterogeneous workers: The case of Chile," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    6. Javier Ordóñez & Hector Sala & José I. Silva, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 89-118.
    7. Hertweck Matthias Sebastian, 2013. "Strategic wage bargaining, labor market volatility, and persistence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 123-149, October.
    8. Rahn, Daniela & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "Patterns Of Unemployment Dynamics In Germany," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 322-357, January.
    9. Koirala, Niraj Prasad & Ma, Xiaohan, 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and U.S. employment growth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Consolo, Agostino & Hertweck, Matthias S., 2010. "Shocks and frictions under right-to-manage wage bargaining: a transatlantic perspective," Working papers 2010/01, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    11. Elena Vakulenko, 2013. "Labour Market Analysis using Time Series Models: Russia 1999-2011," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 120/2013, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/293qice3lj861rvos9ns14n0h0 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Nordmeier, Daniela & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Conditional Patterns of Unemployment Dynamics in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79958, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Guglielminetti, Elisa & Pouraghdam, Meradj, 2018. "Time-varying job creation and macroeconomic shocks," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 156-179.
    15. Meradj Morteza Pouraghdam, 2016. "Three essays on the role of frictions in the economy [Trois essais sur le rôle du désaccord en économie]," SciencePo Working papers tel-03498781, HAL.
    16. Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Fan Zhang, 2019. "Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea," IMF Working Papers 2019/167, International Monetary Fund.

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