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Testing nonlinearity: Decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential STAR models

Author

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  • Álvaro Escribano

    () (Department of Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, c/ Madrid 126, Madrid 28903, Spain Department of Economics, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616-8578, USA)

  • Oscar Jordá

    () (Department of Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, c/ Madrid 126, Madrid 28903, Spain Department of Economics, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616-8578, USA)

Abstract

A new LM specification procedure to choose between Logistic and Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models is introduced. The new decision rule has better properties than those previously available in the literature when the model is ESTAR and similar properties when the model is LSTAR. A simple natural extension of the usual LM-test for linearity is introduced and evaluated in terms of power. Monte-Carlo simulations and empirical evidence are provided in support of our claims.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvaro Escribano & Oscar Jordá, 2001. "Testing nonlinearity: Decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential STAR models," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 193-209.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:specre:v:3:y:2001:i:3:p:193-209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    2. Rothman, Philip, 1991. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 291-298.
    3. Alvaro Escribano & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Improved Testing And Specification Of Smooth Transition Regression Models," Department of Economics 97-26, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    6. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2008. "An overview on various ways of bootstrap methods," MPRA Paper 7163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ahmad, Yamin & Lo, Ming Chien & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2013. "Volatility and persistence of simulated DSGE real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 38-41.
    3. Javier Ordóñez & Hector Sala & José I. Silva, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 89-118.
    4. Milas Costas & Legrenzi Gabriella, 2006. "Non-linear Real Exchange Rate Effects in the UK Labour Market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, March.
    5. Alvaro Escribano & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Improved Testing And Specification Of Smooth Transition Regression Models," Department of Economics 97-26, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    6. Samuel S Jibao & Niek Schoeman & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2010. "Fiscal Regime Changes and the Sustainability of Fiscal Imbalance in South Africa: A Smooth Transition Error-Correction Approach," Working Papers 201023, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Phiri, Andrew, 2015. "Examining asymmetric effects in the South African Philips curve: Evidence from logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models," MPRA Paper 64487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ahmad, Yamin & Craighead, William D., 2011. "Temporal aggregation and purchasing power parity persistence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 817-830, September.
    9. Yamin Ahmad & Stuart Glosser, 2011. "Searching for nonlinearities in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1829-1845.
    10. Derek Stimel, 2010. "Choice of Aggregate Demand Proxy and its Affect on Phillips Curve Nonlinearity: U.S. Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 543-557.
    11. Engemann, Kristie M. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Whatever Happened To The Business Cycle? A Bayesian Analysis Of Jobless Recoveries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(05), pages 709-726, November.
    12. Franchi, Massimo & Ordóñez, Javier, 2011. "Multiple equilibria in Spanish unemployment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-80, February.
    13. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Sie-Hoe, 2002. "Forecasting performance of Logistic STAR exchange rate model: The original and reparameterised versions," MPRA Paper 511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:543-557 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2016. "The nonlinear nature of country risk and its implications for DSGE models," NBP Working Papers 250, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    16. Konstantin A., Kholodilin, 2003. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turns of the Japanese Business Cycle," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2003008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    17. Jacek Kotłowski & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2016. "The nonlinear nature of country risk," EcoMod2016 9416, EcoMod.
    18. Ordonez, Javier, 2003. "Stability and non-linear dynamics in the broad demand for money in Spain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 139-146, January.
    19. Kumawat, Lokendra & Bhanumurthy, N. R., 2016. "Regime Shifts in India's Monetary Policy Response Function," Working Papers 16/177, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    20. Escribano, Álvaro & Mira, Santiago, 1995. "Nonlinear time series models: consistency and asymptotic normality of nls under new conditions," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6202, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    LM linearity tests; smooth transition autoregressive models; nonlinear models;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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