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The Nonlinear Dynamics of Output and Unemployment in the US

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  • Altissimo, Filippo
  • Violante, Giovanni L

Abstract

This paper studies the joint dynamics of US output and unemployment rates in a nonlinear VAR model. The nonlinearity is introduced through a feedback variable that endogenously augments the output lags of the VAR in recessionary phases. Sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the model, potentially applying to a larger class of threshold models, are provided. The linear specification is severely rejected in favour of our threshold VAR. However, in the estimation the feedback is found to be statistically significant only on unemployment, while it transmits to output through its cross-correlation. This feedback effect from recessions generates important asymmetries in the propagation of shocks, a possible key to interpret the divergence in the measures of persistence existing in the literature. The regime-dependent persistence also explains the finding that the feedback from recession exerts a positive effect on the long-run growth rate of the economy, an empirical validation for the Schumpeterian macroeconomic theories.

Suggested Citation

  • Altissimo, Filippo & Violante, Giovanni L, 2000. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Output and Unemployment in the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 2475, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2475
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    Cited by:

    1. Pitarakis Jean-Yves, 2006. "Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, March.
    2. Tang, Bo & Bethencourt, Carlos, 2015. "Asymmetric Unemployment-Output Tradeoff in the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 66043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bårdsen Gunnar & Hurn Stanley & McHugh Zöe, 2012. "Asymmetric Unemployment Rate Dynamics in Australia," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Francois, P. & Lloyd-Ellis, H., 2001. "Animal Spirits Meets Creative Destruction," Discussion Paper 2001-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "The transmission mechanism in a changing world," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 39-61.
    7. Petre CARAIANI, 2015. "Testing For Nonlinearity In Unemployment Rates Via Delay Vector Variance," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 81-92, March.
    8. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
    9. Ulrich Woitek, 2004. "Real Wages and Business Cycle Asymmetries," CESifo Working Paper Series 1206, CESifo Group Munich.
    10. Zagler, Martin, 2003. "The Dynamics of Economic Growth and Unemployment in Major European Countries: Analysis of Okun´s Law," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(3).
    11. Cone, Thomas E., 2008. "Optimal information acquisition and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1370-1389, December.
    12. Martin Zagler, 2006. "Does Economic Growth Exhibit A Different Impact On Job Creation And Job Destruction?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(5), pages 672-683, November.
    13. Oleg Korenok & Bruce Mizrach & Stan Radchenko, 2004. "The Microeconomics of Macroeconomic Asymmetries: Sectoral Driving Forces and Firm Level Characteristics," Departmental Working Papers 200405, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    14. repec:sbe:breart:v:23:y:2003:i:1:a:2734 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Luz A. Flórez & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2018. "Okun´s law in Colombia: a non-linear cointegration," Borradores de Economia 1039, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Yuan-Ming Lee & Kuan-Min Wang & T. Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2008. "A Common-Use Proxy for Economic Performance: Application to Asymmetric Causality between the Stock Returns and Growth," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(2), pages 101-124, August.
    17. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
    18. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA.
    19. Pitarakis, J., 2004. "Model selection uncertainty and detection of threshold effects," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0409, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ergodicity; Impulse Response Function; Long-Run Effect of Recessions; Nonlinearity; Persistence; Threshold VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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