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Asymmetries and Markov-switching structural VAR

Author

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  • Frédéric Karamé

    (GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Le Mans Université, IRA - Institut du Risque et de l'Assurance, Le Mans, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The development of nonlinear representations and of generalized IRFs favored the study of the variables behavior in response to an economically identified shock as regards (i) the state of the system when the shock occurs, (ii) the size of the shock and (iii) the sign of the shock. Generalized IRFs are widely used in threshold representations to illustrate and even test the presence of asymmetries (Potter, 1995, van Dijk et al., 2007). However, GIRF have known no comparable development in Markov-switching VAR. I show that whether IRF and GIRF recently developed in this framework impose sign and size symmetries or display poor properties. In this paper, I propose a new GIRF for general Markov-switching structural VAR with fixed transition probabilities. In a simulation framework inspired from Rubio-Ramirez et al. (2005), I relax the assumption of perfect knowledge of the regime and introduce the updating step proposed by Camacho and Perez-Quiros (2013). As a consequence, sign/size asymmetries can now be examined in MSIAH-VAR and the GIRF now incorporates the dependence on future shocks without extra complexity. Visited regimes can now differ endogenously between the shocked and baseline trajectories due to the initial and future shocks but the only exogenous difference in the simulated trajectories relies on the initial structural shock. I use this approach to implement a test for sign and size asymmetries on US aggregate gross job flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Karamé, 2015. "Asymmetries and Markov-switching structural VAR," Post-Print hal-02296101, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02296101
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2015.01.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2024. "A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    2. Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2023. "Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov-switching VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    3. Markku Lanne & Henri Nyberg, 2016. "Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition for Linear and Nonlinear Multivariate Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(4), pages 595-603, August.
    4. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2021. "OLS Estimation of Markov switching VAR models: asymptotics and application to energy use," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(3), pages 431-449, September.
    5. Koursaros, Demetris & Michail, Nektarios & Savva, Christos, 2024. "Examining the behaviour of inflation to supply and demand shocks using an MS-VAR model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods

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