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On SETAR non- linearity and forecasting

We consider the usefulness of the two-regime SETAR model for out-of-sample forecasting, and compare it with a linear AR model. A range of newly-developed forecast evaluation techniques are employed. Our simulation results show that time-series data need to exhibit a substantial degree of non-linearity before the SETAR model is favoured on some of these criteria. We find only weak evidence that a SETAR model of US GNP provides more accurate forecasts than a linear AR model.

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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 9914-/A.

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Date of creation: 12 Mar 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1567
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  1. repec:att:wimass:9417 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Philip Rothman, 1998. "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 164-168, February.
  3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  4. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-41, March-Apr.
  5. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  6. Kenneth D. West & Michael W. McCracken, 1998. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," NBER Technical Working Papers 0226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C47-C75.
  8. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September.
  9. Krager, Horst & Kugler, Peter, 1993. "Non-linearities in foreign exchange markets: a different perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 195-208, April.
  10. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
  11. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  12. repec:bla:restud:v:53:y:1986:i:4:p:671-90 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Kumar, Kuldeep, 1992. "Some recent developments in non-linear time series modelling, testing, and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 135-156, October.
  14. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 1997. "The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 463-475, December.
  15. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun.
  16. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  17. David Peel & Alan Speight, 1994. "Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 391-417, June.
  18. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  19. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207, July.
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