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Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates

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  • David Peel
  • Alan Speight

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • David Peel & Alan Speight, 1994. "Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(2), pages 391-417, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:130:y:1994:i:2:p:391-417
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02707716
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    2. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-181, March.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    4. Ramsey, James B & Sayers, Chera L & Rothman, Philip, 1990. "The Statistical Properties of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic Applications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(4), pages 991-1020, November.
    5. Milhoj, Anders, 1987. "A Conditional Variance Model for Daily Deviations of an Exchange Rate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 99-103, January.
    6. Stock, James H., 1987. "Measuring Business Cycle Time," Scholarly Articles 3425950, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    8. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-Linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 603-619.
    10. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-368, July.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    12. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
    13. Krager, Horst & Kugler, Peter, 1993. "Non-linearities in foreign exchange markets: a different perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 195-208, April.
    14. John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34.
    15. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "An Economic Theory of Monetary Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 24-58, February.
    16. Stock, James H, 1987. "Measuring Business Cycle Time," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1240-1261, December.
    17. Weiss, Andrew A, 1986. "ARCH and Bilinear Time Series Models: Comparison and Combination," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 59-70, January.
    18. Chinn, Menzie David, 1991. "Some linear and nonlinear thoughts on exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 214-230, June.
    19. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1987. "The Economic Consequences of Noise Traders," NBER Working Papers 2395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans, 1990. "A Chaotic Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hui Feng & Jia Liu, 2003. "A SETAR model for Canadian GDP: non-linearities and forecast comparisons," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(18), pages 1957-1964.
    2. G. Boero & E. Marrocu, 2001. "Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rate returns," Working Paper CRENoS 200110, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    3. G. Boero & E. Marrocu, 2000. "La performance di modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un'applicazione con dati a diversa frequenza," Working Paper CRENoS 200014, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    4. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-141, March-Apr.
    5. repec:sbe:breart:v:32:y:2012:i:2:a:18608 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2005. "Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rates," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(232), pages 91-120.
    7. Fernandes, Marcelo & Preumont, Pierre-Yves, 2012. "The Finite-Sample Size of the BDS Test for GARCH Standardized Residuals," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 32(2), April.
    8. Gilmore, Claire G., 2001. "An examination of nonlinear dependence in exchange rates, using recent methods from chaos theory," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 139-151.
    9. Chan, W.S. & Cheung, S.H., 2005. "A bivariate threshold time series model for analyzing Australian interest rates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 429-437.
    10. G. Boero & E. Marrocu, 1999. "Modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un confronto previsivo," Working Paper CRENoS 199914, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    11. Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses & Michael P. Clements & Jeremy Smith, 2003. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 359-375.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    F31;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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