Exchange rate volatility and volatility asymmetries: an application to finding a natural dollar currency
Based on six daily spot nominal exchange rate returns denominated in the US dollar, viz-a-viz UK Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and Singapore dollar, this paper tries to find a natural Dollar currency by comparing the linear/nonlinear dynamics in the conditional variance of these bilateral exchange rate returns (time varying volatility vs. asymmetries). The characteristics of the unconditional distribution of the FX returns justified the use of the GARCH class of models of conditional volatility. Strong time varying symmetric effects are apparent in all the series examined, especially in the Australian dollar. Further asymmetric effects in unexpected appreciations and depreciations of currencies are examined based on the GJR model, the ST GARCH model and the ANST-GARCH model (which encompasses several asymmetric models). The estimates of asymmetric models show weak evidence of asymmetries in most of the currencies, except in the Japanese Yen and UK Pound. Further findings show that the Japanese Yen is a non-natural Dollar country. However, there may possibly exist some mild deterministic asymmetric effect in the UK Pound. Based on the symmetric GARCH model, a trader/investor may consider Australian dollar as the relatively most 'likable' currency, i.e. relatively the least volatile currency and relatively the most synchronized with the US dollar.
Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fornari, Fabio & Mele, Antonio, 1997.
"Sign- and Volatility-Switching ARCH Models: Theory and Applications to International Stock Markets,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 49-65, Jan.-Feb..
- Fornari, F. & Mele, A., 1995. "Sign- and Volatility -Switching ARCH Models: Theory and Applications to International Stock Markets," Papers 251, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
" On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996.
Cahiers de recherche
9613, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- GHYSELS, Eric & HARVEY, Andrew & RENAULT, Eric, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CORE Discussion Papers 1995069, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Éric Renault, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-49, CIRANO.
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Taylor, Stephen J., 1987. "Forecasting the volatility of currency exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 159-170.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990.
"Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,"
NBER Working Papers
5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- González-Rivera Gloria, 1998. "Smooth-Transition GARCH Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, July.
- Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2002. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia: Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate and China’s Stabilizing Role," Working Papers 02010, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Schwert, G William, 1989.
" Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
- G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-59, October.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:3:p:307-323. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.