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The Nobel Memorial Prize for Robert F. Engle

  • Francis X. Diebold

I review and interpret two of Robert Engle's most important contributions: the theory and application of cointegration, and the theory and application of dynamic volatility models. I treat the latter much more extensively, de-emphasizing technical aspects and focusing instead on the intuition, nuances and importance of the work.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10423.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10423.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Publication status: published as Diebold, Francis S. "The Nobel Memorial Prize For Robert F. Engle," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2004, v106(2), 165-185.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10423
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  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Persistence in Conditional Variances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 167-86, January.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1994. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 517-530.
  3. Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-66, July.
  4. Robert F. Engle, 2000. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-22, January.
  5. Robert F. Engle & Che-Hsiung Hong & Alex Kane, 1990. "Valuation of Variance Forecast with Simulated Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 3350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  7. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  8. Engle, Robert F. & Russell, Jeffrey R., 1997. "Forecasting the frequency of changes in quoted foreign exchange prices with the autoregressive conditional duration model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 187-212, June.
  9. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  10. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Modeling volatility dynamics," Research Paper 9522, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1993. " ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 305-66, December.
  12. Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990. "Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237.
  13. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
  14. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  15. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  16. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-80, April.
  17. Engle, Robert F., 1984. "Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier tests in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 775-826 Elsevier.
  18. Engle, Robert F & Smith, Aaron, 1998. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt99v0s0zx, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  19. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
  20. Robert F. Engle & Joshua Rosenberg, 1998. "Testing the Volatility Term Structure using Option Hedging Criteria," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-031, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  21. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
  22. Engle, Robert F & Patton, Andrew J, 2000. "Impacts of Trades in an Error-Correction Model of Quote Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6dm6093f, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  23. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2467-2498, December.
  24. Pagan, A.R. & Hall, A.D. & Martin, V., 1995. "Modelling the Term Structure," Papers 284, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
  25. Björk, Tomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 1997. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 209, Stockholm School of Economics.
  26. Engle, Robert F & Lunde, Asger, 1998. "Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8bh079sq, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  27. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  28. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
  29. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
  30. Engle, Robert F & Susmel, Raul, 1993. "Common Volatility in International Equity Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-76, April.
  31. Robert F. Engle & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 1995. "GARCH Gamma," NBER Working Papers 5128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  33. Ito, Takatoshi & Engle, Robert F. & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1992. "Where does the meteor shower come from? : The role of stochastic policy coordination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 221-240, May.
  34. Engle, Robert F. & Lange, Joe, 2001. "Predicting VNET: A model of the dynamics of market depth," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 113-142, April.
  35. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  36. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
  37. Diebold, Francis X., 2003. "The Et Interview: Professor Robert F. Engle, January 2003," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 1159-1193, December.
  38. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  39. Engle, Robert F. & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1992. "Implied ARCH models from options prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 289-311.
  40. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  41. Engle, Robert F. & Lilien, David M. & Watson, Mark, 1985. "A dymimic model of housing price determination," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 307-326, June.
  42. Robert F. Engle & David F. Hendry & David Trumble, 1985. "Small-Sample Properties of ARCH Estimators and Tests," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 66-93, February.
  43. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-59, October.
  44. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  45. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February.
  46. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
  47. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
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