Reverse globalization: Does high oil price volatility discourage international trade?
This paper examines whether higher oil price volatility causes a reversal in globalization. Using a large annual panel data set covering 84 countries all over the world from 1984 to 2008, we investigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on international trade, namely exports and imports. We present strong and robust evidence that international trade flows will be lower when oil prices fluctuate significantly. We therefore conclude that oil price volatility hurts globalization.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Apostolos Serletis, 2012.
"Oil Price Uncertainty,"
World Scientific Books,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8407, 04.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Tom Doan, . "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007.
"The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?,"
Economics Working Papers
1045, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2008.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," Working Papers 0711, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 882-887, November.
- Lutz Kilian & Alessandro Rebucci & Nikola Spatafora, 2007.
"Oil Shocks and External Balances,"
562, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2007.
"The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benjamin Bridgman, 2008.
"Data files for "Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade","
06-199, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Javier Ordóñez & Hector Sala & José I. Silva, 2011.
"Oil Price Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 89-118.
- Ordóñez, Javier & Sala, Hector & Silva, José I., 2010. "Oil Price Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," IZA Discussion Papers 5096, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Javier Ordóñez & Hector Sala & José I. Silva, 2010. "Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations," Working Papers wpdea1005, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
- Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2010.
"Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 848-856, July.
- Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2008. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- David K. Backus & Mario J. Crucini, 1998.
"Oil Prices and the Terms of Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
6697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008.
"Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
- Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2005. "Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2005.101, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Lutz Kilian, 2009.
"Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
- Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
- Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-91, April.
- Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valérie, 2008. "Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 847-855, May.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
- Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "The effect of oil price volatility on strategic investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 79-87, January.
- Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer S. Abu-Qarn, 2010. "Trade Liberalization or Oil Shocks: Which Better Explains Structural Breaks in International Trade Ratios?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 250-264, 05.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007.
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?,"
NBER Working Papers
13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier J & Galí, Jordi, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Trade and energy consumption in the Middle East," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 739-749, September.
- Hui Guo & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2005. "Oil price volatility and U.S. macroeconomic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 669-84.
- Benjamin Bridgman, .
"Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade,"
Departmental Working Papers
2003-14, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:5:p:1634-1643. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.