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Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany

  • Lutz, Christian
  • Meyer, Bernd
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    The analysis concentrates on direct and indirect price increases, induced shifts in international trade and structural changes in the oil importing economies. The paper at hand asks, whether a stabilizing effect via international trade and domestic structural change on the GDP of oil importing countries can be observed, if a permanent oil price increase occurs. At least for Germany, structural change from consumer goods to investment goods industry and an improvement of international competitiveness limit negative impacts of increased energy prices. Analysis is based on the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model and the detailed INFORGE model for the German economy.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 6 (November)
    Pages: 882-887

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:31:y:2009:i:6:p:882-887
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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    1. Leder, Frederic & Shapiro, Judith N., 2008. "This time it's different: An inevitable decline in world petroleum production will keep oil product prices high, causing military conflicts and shifting wealth and power from democracies to authoritar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2840-2842, August.
    2. Zhang, Dayong, 2008. "Oil shock and economic growth in Japan: A nonlinear approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2374-2390, September.
    3. Meyer, Bernd & Distelkamp, Martin & Wolter, Marc Ingo, 2007. "Material efficiency and economic-environmental sustainability. Results of simulations for Germany with the model PANTA RHEI," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 192-200, June.
    4. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2005. "China and the Relationship Between the Oil Price and the Dollar," Working Papers 2005-16, CEPII research center.
    5. Gupta, Eshita, 2008. "Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1195-1211, March.
    6. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
    7. Darby, Michael R, 1982. "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 738-51, September.
    8. Lehr, Ulrike & Nitsch, Joachim & Kratzat, Marlene & Lutz, Christian & Edler, Dietmar, 2008. "Renewable energy and employment in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 108-117, January.
    9. Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valérie, 2008. "Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 847-855, May.
    10. Meyer, Bernd & Lutz, Christian & Schnur, Peter & Zika, Gerd, 2006. "National economic policy simulations with global interdependencies : a sensitivity analysis for Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 200612, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    11. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd & Nathani, Carsten & Schleich, Joachim, 2005. "Endogenous technological change and emissions: the case of the German steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1143-1154, June.
    12. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2004. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0362, European Central Bank.
    13. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2005. "Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2005.101, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
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