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Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today

  • Dr. Ulrike Lehr

    ()

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Christian Lutz

    ()

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Kirsten Wiebe

    ()

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

The paper at hand presents results of a model-based scenario analysis on the economic implications in the next decade of an oil peak today and significantly decreasing oil production in the coming years. For that the extraction paths of oil and other fossil fuels given in LBST (2010) are implemented in the global macroeconomic model GINFORS. Additionally, the scenarios incorporate different technological potentials for energy efficiency and renewable energy, which cannot be forecast using econometric methods. GINFORS then endogenously determines world-wide energy demand and energy prices.The results show that the oil shortage firstly and strongly affects the transport sector but then has indirect effects on all other sectors through global supply chains. The medium term reactions to the oil shortage and corresponding substantial increase in the oil price of the global energy system and the individual sectors are energy saving and substitution, lowering global energy demand. The global macroeconomic effects of an increase of the oil price as high as modelled here are comparable to the effects of the financial and economic crises of 2008/2009.

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Paper provided by GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research in its series GWS Discussion Paper Series with number 11-3.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gws:dpaper:11-3
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  1. David I. Stern, 2009. "Interfuel Substitution: A Meta-Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 2009-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  2. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2010. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 848-856, July.
  4. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1758-1766, May.
  5. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
  6. Gupta, Eshita, 2008. "Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1195-1211, March.
  7. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 882-887, November.
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