IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/128.html

A Simple Model of an Oil Based Global Savings Glut – The "China Factor" and the OPEC Cartel

Author

Listed:
  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Gros, Daniel

Abstract

The purpose of this contribution is to illustrate the mechanism by which higher oil prices might lead to lower interest rates in the context of a simple model that takes into account the global external savings equilibrium. The simple model has interesting implications for how one views the huge US current account deficit and how the emergence of China's savings surplus and oil supply shocks impact the global economy.We show that the new equilibrium is located at a lower interest rate but also at a lower income level than without the China effect. Moreover, we argue that the lower real interest rates resulting from excess OPEC savings have facilitated the adjustment to the subprime crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2009. "A Simple Model of an Oil Based Global Savings Glut – The "China Factor" and the OPEC Cartel," Ruhr Economic Papers 128, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/29909/1/605644985.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:aen:journl:2004v25-02-a04 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paul Welfens, 2008. "Portfolio modelling and growth in open economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 237-253, November.
    3. Eyal Dvir & Ken Rogoff, 2009. "The Three Epochs of Oil," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 706, Boston College Department of Economics.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke, 2007. "Global imbalances: recent developments and prospects," Speech 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Wayne D. Angell, 1992. "Commodity Prices and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 12(1), pages 185-192, Spring/Su.
    6. Eckhard Wurzel & Luke Willard & Patrice Ollivaud, 2009. "Recent Oil Price Movements: Forces and Policy Issues," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 737, OECD Publishing.
    7. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Robert Lerman, 2006. "Recycling petrodollars," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Dec).
    8. Mohamed Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: What Drives What in the Gulf Corporation Council Countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 122, pages 41-56.
    9. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:mar10 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    11. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Wirl, Franz, 2009. "OPEC as a political and economical entity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 399-408, December.
    14. Alan Greenspan, 2005. "China: testimony before the Committee on Finance, U.S. Senate, June 23, 2005," Speech 125, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    16. John Y. Campbell, 2008. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number camp06-1, December.
    17. Ben S. Bernanke, 2005. "The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit," Speech 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Robert H. Rasche & John A. Tatom, 1977. "The effects of the new energy regime on economic capacity, production, and prices," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 59(May), pages 2-12.
    19. Rasche, Robert H. & Tatom, John A., 1981. "Energy price shocks, aggregate supply and monetary policy: The theory and the international evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 9-93, January.
    20. Marcelo Sánchez, 2011. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 247-273, September.
    21. Olivier J. Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2013. "WHY ARE THE 2000s SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 1970s? A STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(5), pages 1032-1052, October.
    22. Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2009. "Saving, Investment, and Current Account Surplus in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 158, Asian Development Bank.
    23. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    24. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2007:i:sep11 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Campbell, John Y. (ed.), 2008. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226092119, August.
    26. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. repec:aen:journl:2002v23-01-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2010. "Global Liquidity, World Savings Glut and Global Policy Coordination," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 973, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    29. Rogoff, Kenneth & Obstfeld, Maurice, 2009. "Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes," CEPR Discussion Papers 7606, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. John C.B. Cooper, 2003. "Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 27(1), pages 1-8, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Umar Bala & Lee Chin, 2018. "Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price on Inflation: An Empirical Study of African OPEC Member Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2017. "The relevance of international spillovers and asymmetric effects in the Taylor rule," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 162-170.
    4. Olesia Kozlova & Jose Noguera-Santaella, 2019. "Relative efficiency of oil price versus oil output in promoting economic growth: Is OPEC’s strategy right?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1997-2012, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2009. "A Simple Model of an Oil Based Global Savings Glut – The “China Factor” and the OPEC Cartel," Ruhr Economic Papers 0128, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    2. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    3. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Kallis, Giorgos & Sager, Jalel, 2017. "Oil and the economy: A systematic review of the literature for ecological economists," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 561-571.
    5. Breitenfellner, Andreas & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Mayer, Philipp, 2015. "Energy inflation and house price corrections," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 109-116.
    6. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Jobling, Andrew & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2017. "Price volatility and demand for oil: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 96-113.
    8. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Arora, Vipin & Tyers, Rod, 2012. "Asset arbitrage and the price of oil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 142-150.
    11. repec:grz:wpsses:2015-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2020. "Time-frequency co-movements between oil prices and interest rates: Evidence from a wavelet-based approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes in a New Keynesian Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 1709E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    14. Golombek, Rolf & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Ma, Lin, 2018. "OPEC's market power: An empirical dominant firm model for the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 98-115.
    15. Brown, Stephen P.A. & Huntington, Hillard G., 2013. "Assessing the U.S. oil security premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 118-127.
    16. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 427-507, Elsevier.
    17. Michele Ruta & Anthony J. Venables, 2012. "International Trade in Natural Resources: Practice and Policy," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 331-352, August.
    18. Eyal Dvir & Ken Rogoff, 2009. "The Three Epochs of Oil," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 706, Boston College Department of Economics.
    19. David Cronin, 2018. "US inflation and output since the 1970s: a P-star approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 567-591, March.
    20. Vasyl Golosnoy & Anja Rossen, 2018. "Modeling dynamics of metal price series via state space approach with two common factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1477-1501, June.
    21. Klotz, Philipp & Lin, Tsoyu Calvin & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2014. "Global commodity prices, economic activity and monetary policy: The relevance of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-9.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.