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Energy Inflation and House Price Corrections

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Breitenfellner
  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma
  • Philipp Mayer

Abstract

Using a dataset for 18 OECD economies spanning the last four decades, we identify periods of downward house price adjustment and estimate conditional logit models to measure the effect of energy inflation on the probability of these house price corrections after controlling for other relevant macroeconomic variables. Our results give strong evidence that increases in energy price inflation raise the probability of such corrective periods taking place. We discuss various channels that could explain this phenomenon as well as the implication of our results to the analysis of macro-financial risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Breitenfellner & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Philipp Mayer, 2012. "Energy Inflation and House Price Corrections," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 471, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0471
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    Cited by:

    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Ndako, Umar B., 2020. "The inflation hedging properties of gold, stocks and real estate: A comparative analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Pacelli, Vincenzo & Di Tommaso, Caterina & Foglia, Matteo & Povia, Maria Melania, 2025. "Spillover effects between energy uncertainty and financial risk in the Eurozone banking sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "House price synchronization across the US states: The role of structural oil shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Rangan Gupta & John W. Muteba Mwamba, 2016. "Dynamic Comovements Between Housing and Oil Markets in the US over 1859 to 2013: a Note," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(3), pages 377-386, September.
    5. Killins, Robert N. & Egly, Peter V. & Escobari, Diego, 2017. "The impact of oil shocks on the housing market: Evidence from Canada and U.S," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 15-28.
    6. Nyakundi M. Michieka & Richard S. Gearhart & Noha A. Razek, 2024. "Oil Price Dynamics and Housing Demand in Oil Producing Counties in the U.S," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 483-512, June.
    7. Chen, Bin & Zhu, Xingyi, 2025. "Reaction of Chinese housing prices to oil prices and monetary policy shocks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    8. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 209-220.
    9. Zhang, Tong & Burke, Paul J., 2022. "The effect of gasoline prices on suburban housing values in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Gupta, Rangan & Sheng, Xin & van Eyden, Reneé & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "The impact of disaggregated oil shocks on state-level real housing returns of the United States: The role of oil dependence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    11. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gupta, Rangan & Gormus, Alper & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "Price and volatility linkages between international REITs and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "How Do Housing Returns in Emerging Countries Respond to Oil Shocks? A MIDAS Touch," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(15), pages 4286-4311, December.
    13. Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Syed, Iqbal, 2021. "Information transmission between oil and housing markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    14. Stavros Karamperidis & Konstantinos D. Melas & Nektarios A. Michail, 2024. "Econometric Insights into LNG Carrier Port Congestion and Energy Inflation: A Data-Driven Approach," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Yasmine Zouari & Aya Nasreddine, 2023. "Housing in the Greater Paris Area as an Inflation Hedge?," Post-Print hal-04956272, HAL.
    16. Karanasos, Menelaos & Yfanti, Stavroula & Wu, Jiaying, 2025. "The short- and long-run cyclical variation of the cross-asset nexus: Mixed-frequency evidence on financial and ‘financialised’ assets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    17. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Oyewole, Oluwatomisin J., 2023. "On the connection between international REITs and oil markets: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    18. Delbianco, Fernando & Tohmé, Fernando & Stosic, Tatijana & Stosic, Borko, 2016. "Multifractal behavior of commodity markets: Fuel versus non-fuel products," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 457(C), pages 573-580.
    19. Jin, Yi & Liu, Sinuo & Sun, Yongping & Fang, Jie, 2024. "Energy transition and housing market bubbles: Evidence from prefecture cities in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Stenvall, David & Hedström, Axel & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2022. "Nonlinear tail dependence between the housing and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    21. Qureshi, Irfan A. & Ahmad, Ghufran, 2025. "Oil price shocks and US business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    22. Ahmed Gassar, Abdo Abdullah & Yun, Geun Young & Kim, Sumin, 2019. "Data-driven approach to prediction of residential energy consumption at urban scales in London," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    23. Donadelli, M. & Jüppner, M. & Paradiso, A. & Ghisletti, M., 2020. "Tornado activity, house prices, and stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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