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Econometric Insights into LNG Carrier Port Congestion and Energy Inflation: A Data-Driven Approach

Author

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  • Stavros Karamperidis

    (Plymouth Business School, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK)

  • Konstantinos D. Melas

    (Department of Economics, University of Western Macedonia, 521 00 Kastoria, Greece
    Faculty of Business and Economics, Metropolitan College, 546 24 Thessaloniki, Greece
    Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, 546 36 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Nektarios A. Michail

    (Economic Analysis and Research Department, Central Bank of Cyprus, Nicosia 1076, Cyprus)

Abstract

We examine how LNG carrier port congestion in European ports, measured via detailed vessel-level AIS data, affects euro area energy inflation. As energy inflation significantly affects headline inflation, this study provides an additional factor that can contribute to inflationary pressures. Overall, the results show that higher port congestion increases natural gas prices with the latter having an impact on energy inflation. The reaction stands at 0.1% per 1% shock in port congestion. These findings underline the relationship between the shipping industry and the real economy and support the view that shipping developments can potentially be used as leading indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Stavros Karamperidis & Konstantinos D. Melas & Nektarios A. Michail, 2024. "Econometric Insights into LNG Carrier Port Congestion and Energy Inflation: A Data-Driven Approach," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jcommo:v:3:y:2024:i:4:p:26-471:d:1548516
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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