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Measuring Global Real Economic Activity: Do Recent Critiques Hold Up to Scrutiny?

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  • Lutz Kilian

Abstract

Hamilton (2018) suggests that the Kilian (2009) index of global real economic activity is misleading and calls for alternative measures. The problem documented by Hamilton is a consequence of a coding mistake. Specifically, the index of nominal freight rates underlying the Kilian index was accidentally logged twice. Once this coding error is corrected by removing one of the log transformations, none of the concerns raised by Hamilton remains valid and the index may be used as originally intended. Moreover, it can be shown that the corrected index differs only slightly from the original index and that the key empirical results in Kilian (2009) and related studies remain unchanged when replacing the index.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Measuring Global Real Economic Activity: Do Recent Critiques Hold Up to Scrutiny?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7461, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7461
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7461.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lutz Kilian, 2017. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    2. repec:oup:ajagec:v:99:y:2017:i:1:p:243-264. is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2015. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(1), pages 55-109.
    4. Valentina G. Bruno & Bahattin Büyükşahin & Michel A. Robe, 2017. "The Financialization of Food?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264.
    5. repec:eee:jimfin:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:54-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, August.
    7. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    8. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    9. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michał Rubaszek, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 13478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2019. "Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13849, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global business cycle; shipping; commodity market; oil; log transformation;

    JEL classification:

    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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