IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v74y2025icp677-689.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China’s impact on global commodity returns: A time-varying perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Leqin

Abstract

Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model and a monthly data sample from October 2006 to November 2023, we examine the time-varying effects of shocks to economic activity, interest rate, and the real effective exchange rate (REER) in China on the global commodity returns. The results reveal three relevant findings. First, China’s economic activity shocks induce positive, time-varying responses from global commodity returns, and these effects have diminished significantly since 2015. Significant heterogeneity occurs in commodity subindices’ reactions. Second, interest rate shocks have a negative but limited impact on global commodity returns. Third, China’s REER shocks negatively affect global commodity returns but the intensity dampens slightly over time. Based on these findings, we recommend that China’s policymakers implement precautionary measures to mitigate the negative impacts of commodity price shocks and financial markets reforms to boost China’s influence on global commodity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Leqin, 2025. "China’s impact on global commodity returns: A time-varying perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 677-689.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:74:y:2025:i:c:p:677-689
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X2500089X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:74:y:2025:i:c:p:677-689. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.