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Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India

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  • Li, Hong
  • Xiaowen Lin, Sharon

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence on the changing structure of world oil price system by identifying an additional driver-emerging market factor. We choose China and India as a representative of emerging markets to examine if the quantity of crude oil imported by China and India is significant in the existing oil pricing system (Kaufmann et al., 2004). Our data starts from January 2002 and ends in March 2010, which includes the oil shock of 2007-2008. We utilize cointegration and error correction model framework developed by Engle-Granger (1987) and Gregory-Hansen (1996) in the analysis. Our results indicate that demand from emerging markets has become a significant factor in the world oil pricing system since 2003. This result is significant as it lends empirical support to the widely held conjecture that the oil shock of 2007-2008 is a demand-led shock (Hamilton, 2009). Our result also has significant policy implications that go beyond the oil shock. The emerging market factor is there to stay and reflects the changing power between emerging and developed economies in the world economic system as a result of decades of fast economic development in the former. It will certainly influence policy issues related to oil and beyond.

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  • Li, Hong & Xiaowen Lin, Sharon, 2011. "Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4624-4630, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:8:p:4624-4630
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    8. Chen, Leqin, 2025. "China’s impact on global commodity returns: A time-varying perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 677-689.
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    10. Liang Wang & Tingjia Xu, 2022. "Bidirectional Risk Spillovers between Exchange Rate of Emerging Market Countries and International Crude Oil Price–Based on Time-varing Copula-CoVaR," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 383-414, January.
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    13. Jinyu Chen & Xuehong Zhu, 2021. "The Effects of Different Types of Oil Price Shocks on Industrial PPI: Evidence from 36 Sub-industries in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3411-3434, September.
    14. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Jian-Min & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "The dynamic effects of international oil price shocks on economic fluctuation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Nihit Goyal, 2021. "Limited Demand or Unreliable Supply? A Bibliometric Review and Computational Text Analysis of Research on Energy Policy in India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-23, December.
    16. Su, Chi-Wei & Huang, Shi-Wen & Qin, Meng & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Does crude oil price stimulate economic policy uncertainty in BRICS?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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