Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics
We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the two types of market turns out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2010.
"Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 95-107, September.
- Gonzalo, Jesús & Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel, 2007. "Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb074510, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
- Gonzalo, Jesús & Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel, 2008. "Modelling and Measuring Price Discovery in Commodity Markets," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 15951, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
- Barassi, Marco R. & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen G., 2005. "Interest rate linkages: a Kalman filter approach to detecting structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-284, March.
- Andrea Coppola, 2007.
"Forecasting Oil Price Movements: Exploiting the Information in the Future Market,"
CEIS Research Paper
100, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- Andrea Coppola, 2008. "Forecasting oil price movements: Exploiting the information in the futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 34-56, 01.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/5465 is not listed on IDEAS
- Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March.
- Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. " Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1075-93, December.
- deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A., 2002. "Security price adjustment across exchanges: an investigation of common factor components for Dow stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 277-308, July.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Basak, Suleyman & Croitoru, Benjamin, 2004.
"On the Role of Arbitrageurs in Rational Markets,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995.
"Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
- Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Gonzalo and Granger JBES 1995 paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00074, Boston College Department of Economics.
- deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Shoesmith, Gary L. & Wood, Robert A., 1995. "Cointegration, Error Correction, and Price Discovery on Informationally Linked Security Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 563-579, December.
- Franklin R. Edwards & Michael S. Canter, 1995. "The Collapse Of Metallgesellschaft: Unhedgeable Risks, Poor Hedging Strategy, Or Just Bad Luck?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 8(1), pages 86-105.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Ronald Ripple & Imad Moosa, 2005. "Futures Maturity and Hedging Effectiveness - The Case of Oil Futures," Research Papers 0513, Macquarie University, Department of Economics.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al, 1995. " Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 361-75, March.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
- James D. Hamilton, 2009.
"Understanding Crude Oil Prices,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
- Kaufmann, Robert K. & Ullman, Ben, 2009. "Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals: Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 550-558, July.
- M. McAleer & J. M. Sequeira, 2004. "Efficient estimation and testing of oil futures contracts in a mutual offset system," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 953-962.
- Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. " Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-45, December.
- Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti & Christopher L. Gilbert, 2005. "Price discovery in the aluminium market," Department of Economics Working Papers 0506, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
- Lehmann, Bruce N., 2002. "Some desiderata for the measurement of price discovery across markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 259-276, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.