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Information Transmission under Increasing Political Tension – Evidence for the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887-1896

Author

Listed:
  • Martin T. Bohl
  • Alexander Pütz
  • Pierre L. Siklos
  • Christoph Sulewski

Abstract

This article studies the effects of increasing political uncertainty on the functioning of futures markets. For this purpose, we utilize a unique natural experiment, namely the discussions around and the final coming into force of the German Exchange Act of 1896. Using static and time-varying vector error correction models, the empirical analysis shows that, although early futures markets exhibit a high degree of operational efficiency, increasing political tensions were related to a declining dominance of the futures market in the price discovery process. In summary, we provide a strong illustration of the negative consequences of misplaced regulatory attempts caused by strong political interests.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin T. Bohl & Alexander Pütz & Pierre L. Siklos & Christoph Sulewski, 2018. "Information Transmission under Increasing Political Tension – Evidence for the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887-1896," CQE Working Papers 7618, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    • Handle: RePEc:cqe:wpaper:7618
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Early commodity futures markets; Berlin Produce Exchange; Uncertainty; Price discovery; Regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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