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Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets

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  • Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel
  • Gonzalo, Jesús

Abstract

In this paper we present an equilibrium model of commodity spot (St) and future (Ft) prices, with finite elasticity of arbitrage services and convenience yields. By explicitly incorporating and modeling endogenously the convenience yield, our theoretical model is able to capture the existence of backwardation or contango in the long-run spot-future equilibrium relationship, (St-ß2Ft ). When the slope of the cointegrating vector ß2>1 (ß2

Suggested Citation

  • Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2007. "Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb074510, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:wb074510
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Backwardation;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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