IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc15/113213.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price Discovery in Thinly Traded Futures Markets: How Thin is Too Thin?

Author

Listed:
  • Adaemmer, Philipp
  • Bohl, Martin T.
  • Christian, Groß

Abstract

We investigate the price dynamics of two illiquid agricultural futures contracts traded at the European Exchange in Frankfurt. Based on constant and time-varying vector error correction models, we measure the contribution of each futures market to price discovery. Although results from the constant model indicate a dominant role of both futures markets, time-varying parameters reveal strong fluctuations in the price discovery process of the less liquid futures market. By comparing the empirical results, we conclude that the trading volume threshold which is necessary to facilitate efficient price discovery is very low. Our findings also show that neglecting time-variation in the parameters can lead to misleading results, especially for thinly traded markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Adaemmer, Philipp & Bohl, Martin T. & Christian, Groß, 2015. "Price Discovery in Thinly Traded Futures Markets: How Thin is Too Thin?," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113213, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:113213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/113213/1/VfS_2015_pid_356.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2014. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 78-97, February.
    2. Paul Brockman & Yiuman Tse, 1995. "Information shares in Canadian agricultural cash and futures markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(10), pages 335-338.
    3. Robin K. Chou & Huimin Chung, 2006. "Decimalization, trading costs, and information transmission between ETFs and index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 131-151, February.
    4. de Jong, Frank, 2002. "Measures of contributions to price discovery: a comparison," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 323-327, July.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 1131-1147, October.
    7. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
    8. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    9. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
    10. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    11. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl, 2015. "Price Discovery in European Agricultural Markets: When Do Futures Contracts Matter?," CQE Working Papers 4415, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    2. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    3. Martin T. Bohl & Alexander Pütz & Pierre L. Siklos & Christoph Sulewski, 2018. "Information Transmission under Increasing Political Tension – Evidence for the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887-1896," CQE Working Papers 7618, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    4. Christoph Schmidhammer & Sebastian Lobe & Klaus Röder, 2016. "The day the index rose 11 %: a clinical study on price discovery reversal," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 79-106, January.
    5. Li, Wei-Xuan & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng & Nguyen, James, 2022. "Which market dominates the price discovery in currency futures? The case of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Intercontinental Exchange," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Christoph Schmidhammer & Sebastian Lobe & Klaus Röder, 2016. "The day the index rose 11 %: a clinical study on price discovery reversal," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 79-106, January.
    7. Silvério, Renan & Szklo, Alexandre, 2012. "The effect of the financial sector on the evolution of oil prices: Analysis of the contribution of the futures market to the price discovery process in the WTI spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1799-1808.
    8. Nigatu, Getachew & Adjemian, Michael K., 2016. "The U.S. Role in the Price Determination of Major Agricultural Commodities," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236045, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2020. "The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on asset-price discovery: Testing the case of Chinese informational asymmetry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Qin Wang & Hsiao-Fen Yang, 2015. "Earnings announcements, trading volume, and price discovery: evidence from dual class firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 669-700, May.
    11. Jungbin Hwang & Gonzalo Valdés, 2020. "Low Frequency Cointegrating Regression in the Presence of Local to Unity Regressors and Unknown Form of Serial Dependence," Working papers 2020-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2020.
    12. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl, 2018. "Price discovery dynamics in European agricultural markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 549-562, May.
    13. Valkanov, Rossen, 1999. "The Term Structure with Highly Persistent Interest Rates," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt8x91m4hg, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    14. David E. Allen & Chialin Chang & Michael McAleer & Abhay K Singh, 2018. "A cointegration analysis of agricultural, energy and bio-fuel spot, and futures prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(7), pages 804-823, February.
    15. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2017. "Time-Varying Price Discovery and Autoregressive Loading Factors: Evidence from S&P 500 Cash and E-Mini Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 81999, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Perrakis, Stylianos & Zhong, Rui, 2017. "Price discovery in equity and CDS markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-46.
    17. Mizrach, Bruce & Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Information shares in the US Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1221-1233, July.
    18. Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2007. "A residual-based cointegration test for near unit root variables," International Finance Discussion Papers 907, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Chen, Wei-Peng & Chung, Huimin & Lien, Donald, 2016. "Price discovery in the S&P 500 index derivatives markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 438-452.
    20. Christian Hertrich, 2013. "Asset Allocation Considerations for Pension Insurance Funds," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-658-02167-2, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:113213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.