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The Samuelson hypothesis in futures markets: An analysis using intraday data


  • Duong, Huu Nhan
  • Kalev, Petko S.


This paper considers the Samuelson hypothesis, which argues that the futures price volatility increases as the futures contract approaches its expiration. Utilizing intraday data from 20 futures markets in six futures exchanges, we find strong support for the Samuelson hypothesis in agricultural futures. However, the Samuelson hypothesis does not hold for other futures contracts. We also provide supporting evidence that the 'negative covariance' hypothesis is the key factor for the empirical support of the Samuelson hypothesis. In addition, our findings remain largely unaltered even after we control for seasonality and liquidity effects.

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  • Duong, Huu Nhan & Kalev, Petko S., 2008. "The Samuelson hypothesis in futures markets: An analysis using intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 489-500, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:4:p:489-500

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Saunders, Anthony, 1986. "Futures Price Variability: A Test of Maturity and Volume Effects," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 319-330, April.
    2. Thomakos, Dimitrios D. & Wang, Tao, 2003. "Realized volatility in the futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 321-353, May.
    3. Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al, 1995. " Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 361-375, March.
    4. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-787, October.
    5. Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, February.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    7. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    8. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    9. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "One Day in the Life of a Very Common Stock," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 805-835.
    10. David Kenyon & Kenneth Kling & Jim Jordan & William Seale & Nancy McCabe, 1987. "Factors affecting agricultural futures price variance," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 73-91, February.
    11. Ronald W. Anderson & Jean-Pierre Danthine, 1983. "The Time Pattern of Hedging and the Volatility of Futures Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 249-266.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben-Abdallah, Ramzi & Ben-Ameur, Hatem & Breton, Michèle, 2009. "An analysis of the true notional bond system applied to the CBOT T-bond futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 534-545, March.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6887 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chevallier, Julien & Sévi, Benoît, 2012. "On the volatility–volume relationship in energy futures markets using intraday data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1896-1909.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13630 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sévi, Benoît, 2014. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 643-659.
    6. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2011. "On the realized volatility of the ECX CO 2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, February.
    7. Edouard Jaeck & Delphine Lautier, 2014. "Samuelson hypothesis and electricity derivative markets," Post-Print hal-01655800, HAL.
    8. Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors: A view from the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 614-625, July.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14413 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kim, Myeong Jun & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Optimal conditional hedge ratio: A simple shrinkage estimation approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 139-156.
    11. Jaeck, Edouard & Lautier, Delphine, 2016. "Volatility in electricity derivative markets: The Samuelson effect revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 300-313.
    12. Ergen, Ibrahim & Rizvanoghlu, Islam, 2016. "Asymmetric impacts of fundamentals on the natural gas futures volatility: An augmented GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 64-74.
    13. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wu, Wenfeng, 2016. "Disentangling the determinants of real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 363-373.
    14. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-053 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Liu, Wei-han, 2016. "A re-examination of maturity effect of energy futures price from the perspective of stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 351-362.
    16. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong, 2014. "Cross-correlations between spot and futures markets of nonferrous metals," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 400(C), pages 20-30.
    17. Saurabh Gupta & Prabina Rajib, 2012. "Samuelson Hypothesis & Indian Commodity Derivatives Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 19(4), pages 331-352, November.
    18. repec:spr:fininn:v:3:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-017-0066-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jin, Na, 2011. "Three essays on commodity futures and options markets," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800001428, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4598 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:eco:journ1:2017-02-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Chevallier, Julien, 2010. "Modelling risk premia in CO2 allowances spot and futures prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 717-729, May.

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