An Assessment of the Theory of Storage: Has the Relationship between Commodity Price Volatility and Market Fundamentals Changed Over Time?
In this paper we investigate the relationship between commodity price volatility and market fundamentals comparing the 1920s with the present decade and focusing on cotton and tin. The theory of storage provides the theoretical reference for the analysis. Our first result is to find that the series have widely different properties which reflect the speedier diffusion of information in the markets today. This emerges both in the order of autocorrelation of the VECMs used to analyze the dynamics of the spot and futures returns and in the structure of the GARCH parameterization. Our second finding is to show that, based on full sample correlations, the theory of storage seems to capture the dynamics of data with the exception of historical tin. Rolling correlations, however, qualify this result and show that dynamic correlation for historical tin largely corroborate the theory of reference while recent inroads of financial agents in commodity markets seem to have affected the cotton market, giving prominence to financial risk factors.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via delle Pandette 9 50127 - Firenze - Italy|
Phone: +39 055 2759582
Web page: http://www.disei.unifi.it/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nikolaos Milonas & Thomas Henker, 2001. "Price spread and convenience yield behaviour in the international oil market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 23-36.
- Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005.
"Storage and Commodity Markets,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, November.
- Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 1991. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521326162, November.
- Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
- Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
- Nikolaos T. Milonas & Stavros B. Thomadakis, 1997. "Convenience yields as call options: An empirical analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, 02.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/1937 is not listed on IDEAS Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2012_12.rdf. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giorgio Ricchiuti)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.