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Ajuste de los fundamentos del modelo monetario en la determinación del tipo de cambio argentino


  • Néstor A. Le Clech

    () (Universidad Nacional de Quilmes)


The aim of the present work is to examine the adequacy of adjustment of the monetary model in the determination of the Argentine exchange rate and its capacity for short term forecast. The results validate the relations postulated by the monetary model and demonstrate its quality in short run forecast, superior to a random walk model. Additionally, a model that includes a mechanism of correction of the error is examined, which has an extremely rapid speed of adjustment, accounting for more than 99 % of the adjustment within 7 months. Finally some comments on the possibilities of the economic policy are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Néstor A. Le Clech, 2006. "Ajuste de los fundamentos del modelo monetario en la determinación del tipo de cambio argentino," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 0(2), pages 59-79, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ief:reveye:v:44:y:2006:i:2:p:59-79

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
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    3. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters,in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February.
    12. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
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    More about this item


    Monetary model; Exchange rate; Argentine purchasing power parity;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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