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Was it Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation, 1973-1984

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  • Richard Meese
  • Kenneth Rogoff

Abstract

The main result of Meese and Rogoff [1983 a,b] is that small structural exchange rate models forecast major dollar exchange rates no better than a naive random walk model. This result obtains even when the model forecasts are based on actual realized values of the explanatory variables. Here we improve our methodology by implementing a new test of out-of-sample fit; the test is valid even for overlapping long-horizon forecasts. We find that the dollar exchange rate models perform somewhat less badly over the recent Reagan regime period than over the episodes studied previously. The methodology is also applied to the mark/yen and mark/pound exchange rates, and to real exchange rates. Finally, we test to see if real exchange rates and real interest differentials can be represented as a cointegrated process. The evidence suggests that there is no single common influence inducing nonstationarity in both real exchange rates and real interest differentials.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "Was it Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation, 1973-1984," NBER Working Papers 1732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1732
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    2. Campbell, John Y. & Clarida, Richard H., 1987. "The dollar and real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 103-139, January.
    3. Alan C. Stockman, 1987. "The equilibrium to exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 73(Mar), pages 12-30.
    4. GUISAN, Maria-Carmen, 2009. "Real Exchange Rate Euro-Dollar And Foreign Trade Balance: Analysis Of Spain, Germany And France In Comparison With The Usa. 1960-2007," Economic Development 100, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    5. König, Peter & Möller, Joachim, 1988. "Deviations from uncovered interest parity: A Kalman filter approach to the Mark/Dollar rate and the Swiss Franc/Dollar rate," Discussion Papers, Series II 52, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".

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