IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Deviations from uncovered interest parity: A Kalman filter approach to the Mark/Dollar rate and the Swiss Franc/Dollar rate

Listed author(s):
  • König, Peter
  • Möller, Joachim

The present paper analyzes deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity by applying a Kalman filter procedure based on optimal initial information to the estimation of this arbitrage equilibrium for the Mark/Dollar rate and the Swiss Franc/Dollar rate. The results demonstrate that the hypothesis of a time-varying deviation from Uncovered Interest Parity in these equations cannot be rejected. Furthermore, these models are shown to out-perform the random walk in forecasting. An examination of the stochastic disturbances indicates that the shocks responsible for the deviations cover a wide range of economic and political issues.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/101592/1/721453767.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy" in its series Discussion Papers, Series II with number 52.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 1988
Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:52
Contact details of provider: Postal:
D-78457 Konstanz

Phone: +49 7531 88 2314
Fax: +49-7531-88-2145
Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-konstanz.de/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1987. "Foreign currency futures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 1-24, February.
  2. Meese, Richard & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1986. "Was it real? The exchange rate -- Interest differential relation: 1973-1984," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 297-298, June.
  3. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Recent estimates of time-variation in the conditional variance and in the exchange risk premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 115-125, March.
  6. Hodrick, Robert J., 1981. "International asset pricing with time-varying risk premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 573-587, November.
  7. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  8. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  9. Gaab, W. & Granziol, M. J. & Horner, M., 1986. "On some international parity conditions : An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 683-713, June.
  10. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1979. "The diversifiability of exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 379-393, August.
  12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.