IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hrv/faseco/3221495.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dollar and Real Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Campbell, John
  • Clarida, Richard

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the link between the real foreign exchange value of the dollar and real interest rates since 1979. We argue that it is important to consider the possibility that real exchange rate movements reflect movements of the long-run equilibrium exchange rate as well as real interest differentials. We use a state-space approach to estimate the importance of shifts in the long-run equilibrium exchange rate, the persistence of the ex ante short-term real interest differential, and the effect of this differential on the exchange rate. Using U.S., Canadian, British, German and Japanese data from October 1979 to March 1986, we find that movements in the dollar real exchange rate have been dominated by unanticipated shifts in the expected long-run real exchange rate. Ex ante real interest differentials have not been persistent or variable enough to account for a major part of exchange rate variation. We use Mussa's (1984) rational expectations model of the real exchange rate and the current account to interpret our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Campbell, John & Clarida, Richard, 1987. "The Dollar and Real Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 3221495, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:3221495
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3221495/campbell_dollarrealinterest.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D, 1985. "Uncovering Financial Market Expectations of Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1224-1241, December.
    2. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "The Dollar and the Policy Mix: 1985," NBER Working Papers 1636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722, Elsevier.
    5. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 369-464.
    7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    8. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 273-334.
    9. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    10. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    11. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    12. William H. Branson, 1985. "Causes of appreciation and volatility of the dollar," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 33-63.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "The Dazzling Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(1), pages 199-217.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
    2. Charles Engel & James D. Hamilton, 1989. "Long Swings in the Exchange Rate: Are they in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," NBER Working Papers 3165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    4. Jorion, Philippe, 1996. "Does real interest parity hold at longer maturities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 105-126, February.
    5. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Intenational Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 119-220.
    7. Thomas Chiang & Jose Trinidad, 1997. "Risk and International Parity Conditions: A Synthesis from Consumption Based Models," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 73-101.
    8. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
    9. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    10. Kempa, Bernd, 2005. "An oversimplified inquiry into the sources of exchange rate variability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 439-458, May.
    11. Gruen, D.W.R. & Gizycki, M.C., 1993. "Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is It Anchoring?," Papers 164, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    12. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
    13. Martin S. Feldstein, 1986. "The Budget Deficit and the Dollar," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 355-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
    15. Nelson C. Mark, 2009. "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1047-1070, September.
    16. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1986. "The Dollar as Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalists and Chartists," NBER Working Papers 1854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Alison Tarditi & Gordon Menzies, 1991. "Monthly Movements in the Australian Dollar and Real Short-term Interest Differentials: An Application of the Kalman Filter," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9111, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    18. Bernard Dumas, 1993. "Partial- vs general-equilibrium models of the international capital market," Working Papers hal-00610766, HAL.
    19. Dhrymes, Phoebus J. & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 1998. "Structural VAR, MARMA and open economy models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 187-198, June.
    20. Fujihara, Roger A. & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "International linkages between short-term real interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 451-473.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:3221495. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Office for Scholarly Communication). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deharus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.