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Real Exchange Rate Euro-Dollar And Foreign Trade Balance: Analysis Of Spain, Germany And France In Comparison With The Usa. 1960-2007

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  • GUISAN, Maria-Carmen

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Abstract

One aim of this paper is to relate the evolution of real exchange rate Euro-Dollar to the foreign trade balance, with analysis three European countries: Spain, Germany and France, for the period 1960-2007. A second question is to analyse the effects of changes of REER on the evolution of Exports and Imports. A third point is to evaluate the impact of those changes on industrial and non industrial production and economic growth. We estimate an econometric model for the case of Spain that explains the causes and consequences of the huge increase of the trade deficit during the period 2004-2009 and we insist on the convenience to develop economic policies aimed to get higher levels of industrial production per inhabitant to increase Exports and to moderate foreign trade deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • GUISAN, Maria-Carmen, 2009. "Real Exchange Rate Euro-Dollar And Foreign Trade Balance: Analysis Of Spain, Germany And France In Comparison With The Usa. 1960-2007," Economic Development 100, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ecodev:100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates: a Guidebook for the Euro-Dollar Rate," Working Papers 2008-02, CEPII research center.
    2. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, “Ins,” “Outs,” and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Cancelo, M.Teresa & Guisan, M.Carmen & Frias, Isidro, 2001. "Supply and Demand on Manufacturing Output in OECD countries: econometric models and specification test," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 7-42.
    4. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    5. Jorg Bibow, 2005. "Bad for Euroland, Worse for Germany: The ECB's Record," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_429, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-226, October.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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