IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Exchange-rate economics for the resources sector

  • Clements, Kenneth
  • Lan, Yihui
  • Roberts, John

The paper provides an account of aspects of exchange-rate economics that are of particular relevance to the resources sector. The issues discussed include exchange-rate volatility and the risk management practices used to deal with it, the role of productivity differences across countries, and the impact of a booming resources sector on the country's exchange rate. The discussion is organized around a simple stylized model that emphasizes the quantity theory of money and purchasing power parity as a long-run link between prices and exchange rates.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4207(08)00019-6
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Resources Policy.

Volume (Year): 33 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 102-117

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:33:y:2008:i:2:p:102-117
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-051, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Michael R. Pakko & Patricia S. Pollard, 2003. "Burgernomics: a big MacT guide to purchasing power parity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 9-28.
  3. Andrew B. Stoeckel, 1979. "Some General Equilibrium Effects Of Mining Growth On The Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 23(1), pages 1-22, 04.
  4. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521460477, November.
  5. Stijns, Jean-Philippe C., 2001. "Natural Resource Abundance And Economic Growth Revisited," Berkeley Economics Dissertations-in-Progress Series 25127, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  6. Peter Warr, 2006. "The Gregory Thesis Visits the Tropics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(257), pages 177-194, 06.
  7. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  8. Robert P. Flood & Mark P. Taylor, 1996. "Exchange Rate Economics: What's Wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 261-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  10. Bjornland, Hilde Christiane, 1998. "The Economic Effects of North Sea Oil on the Manufacturing Sector," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(5), pages 553-85, November.
  11. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ong, Li Lian, 1997. "Burgernomics: the economics of the Big Mac standard," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 865-878, December.
  13. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
  14. Tufano, Peter, 1996. " Who Manages Risk? An Empirical Examination of Risk Management Practices in the Gold Mining Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1097-1137, September.
  15. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
  16. Taylor, Alan M. & Taylor, Mark P, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 4495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Bravo-Ortega, Claudio & de Gregorio, Jose, 2005. "The relative richness of the poor? natural resources, human capital, and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3484, The World Bank.
  18. Clements, Kenneth W. & Lan, Yihui, 2010. "A new approach to forecasting exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1424-1437, November.
  19. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
  20. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
  22. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1996. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Papers 545, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  23. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1997. "A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1668, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. repec:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:2:p:204-25 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Charles Engel, 1992. "Can the Markov Switching Model Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Chen, L. L. & Devereux, J., 2003. "What can US city price data tell us about purchasing power parity?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 213-222, April.
  27. Kenneth Clements, 1981. "The monetary approach to exchange rate determination: A geometric analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 117(1), pages 20-29, March.
  28. Snape, Richard H., 1977. "Effects Of Mineral Development On The Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 21(03), December.
  29. Ericsson, Johan & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2004. "The productivity-bias hypothesis and the PPP theorem: new evidence from panel vector autoregressive models," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 121-138, April.
  30. Maurice Obstfeld and Alan M. Taylor., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-088, University of California at Berkeley.
  31. R.G. Gregory, 1976. "Some Implications Of The Growth Of The Mineral Sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(2), pages 71-91, 08.
  32. Seong, Byeongchan & Mahbub Morshed, A.K.M. & Ahn, Sung K., 2006. "Additional sources of bias in half-life estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 2056-2064, December.
  33. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
  34. Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-Linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 603-619.
  35. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1999. "A Mixed Blessing," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 204-225, June.
  36. Kenneth W. Clements & Yihui Lan, 2004. "Exchange Rates, Productivity, Poverty and Inequality," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 04-13, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  37. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Gelan, Abera, 2006. "Black market exchange rate and the productivity bias hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 243-249, May.
  38. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," International Finance Discussion Papers 714, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  39. Usui, Norio, 1997. "Dutch disease and policy adjustments to the oil boom: a comparative study of Indonesia and Mexico," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 151-162, December.
  40. Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon & Ravn, Morten O & Rey, Hélène, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 3715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  41. Peter J. Maloney, 1990. "Managing Currency Exposure: The Case Of Western Mining," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 2(4), pages 29-34.
  42. Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1999. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues (NBER-EASE volume 7), pages 109-132 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-26, October.
  44. Corden, W M, 1982. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Resources Boom," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 58(160), pages 18-31, March.
  45. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & ABM Nasir, 2005. "Productivity Bias Hypothesis and The Purchasing Power Parity: a review article," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 671-696, 09.
  46. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Chand, Satish & Levantis, Theodore, 2000. "Dutch Diseas and the crime epidemic: an investigation of the mineral boom in Papua New Guinea," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 44(1), March.
  48. repec:idb:brikps:59538 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Johnson, Harry G, 1971. "The Keynesian Revolution and the Monetarist Counter-Revolution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 1-14, May.
  50. Clements, Kenneth W. & Fry, Renée, 2008. "Commodity currencies and currency commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 55-73, June.
  51. Higgs, Peter J. & Powell, Alan A., 1992. "Australia's North-West shelf gas project : A general equilibrium analysis of its impact on the Australian economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 179-190, September.
  52. Paul Krugman, 1993. "Recent Thinking About Exchange Rate Determination and Policy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.), The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments Reserve Bank of Australia.
  53. Auty, Richard M., 2001. "The political economy of resource-driven growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 839-846, May.
  54. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  55. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
  56. K.W. Clements & M. Semudram, 1981. "An International Comparison of the Price of Non-Traded Goods," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 81-15, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  57. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  58. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1996. "A Reexamination of Balassa's Productivity Bias Hypothesis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 195-204, October.
  59. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  60. Corden, W M, 1981. "The Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy and North Sea Oil: The Economic Theory of the Squeeze on Tradeables," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(0), pages 23-46, Supplemen.
  61. Kenneth W. Clements & Yihui Lan, 2005. "How Long is the Long Run? Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  62. Karl F Habermeier & Mario M Mesquita, 1999. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Dynamics; A Panel Data Study," IMF Working Papers 99/50, International Monetary Fund.
  63. DeLoach, Stephen B, 2001. "More Evidence in Favor of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 336-42, May.
  64. Heston, Alan & Nuxoll, Daniel A & Summers, Robert, 1994. "The Differential-Productivity Hypothesis and Purchasing-Power Parties: Some New Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 227-43, October.
  65. Qi, Min & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Nonlinear prediction of exchange rates with monetary fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 623-640, December.
  66. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004, November.
  67. Richard H. Snape, 1977. "Effects Of Mineral Development On The Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 21(3), pages 147-156, December.
  68. Chris Becker & Daniel Fabbro, 2006. "Limiting Foreign Exchange Exposure through Hedging: The Australian Experience," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  69. Xu, Zhenhui, 2003. "Purchasing power parity, price indices, and exchange rate forcasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 105-130, February.
  70. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-98, March.
  71. P J Forsyth & J A Kay, 1980. "The economic implications of North Sea Oil Revenues," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 1-28, July.
  72. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  73. Osmel Manzano & Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "Resource Curse or Debt Overhang?," NBER Working Papers 8390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  74. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  75. Yihui Lan, 2003. "The Long-Term Behaviour of Exchange Rates, Part I: Introduction," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  76. Anthony J. Venables & William Maloney & Ari Kokko & Claudio Bravo Ortega & Daniel Lederman & Roberto Rigobón & José De Gregorio & Jesse Czelusta & Shamila A. Jayasuriya & Magnus Blomström & L. Colin X, 2007. "Natural Resources: Neither Curse nor Destiny," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 59538 edited by William Maloney & Daniel Lederman, September.
  77. Patinkin, Don, 1969. "The Chicago Tradition, the Quantity Theory, and Friedman," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 46-70, February.
  78. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
  79. Stoeckel, Andrew B., 1979. "Some General Equilibrium Effects Of Mining Growth On The Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 23(01), April.
  80. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  81. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  82. Robert E. Cumby, 1996. "Forecasting Exchange Rates and Relative Prices with the Hamburger Standard: Is What You Want What You Get With McParity?," NBER Working Papers 5675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  83. Davis, Graham A., 1995. "Learning to love the Dutch disease: Evidence from the mineral economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1765-1779, October.
  84. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  85. Michael R. Pakko & Patricia S. Pollard, 1996. "For here or to go? Purchasing power parity and the Big Mac," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
  86. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
  87. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233607, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  88. Lothian, James R, 1985. "Equilibrium Relationships between Money and Other Economic Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 828-35, September.
  89. Chambers, Marcus J., 2005. "The purchasing power parity puzzle, temporal aggregation, and half-life estimation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 193-198, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:33:y:2008:i:2:p:102-117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.