A new approach to forecasting exchange rates
Building on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several potential problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the consumer price index used inÂ conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon. These high-frequency forecasts could be appealing to those who want up-to-date exchange-rate forecasts. Finally, as our forecasts are obtained through a simulation procedure, estimation uncertainty is made explicit in our framework that provides the entire distribution of exchange rates, not just a single point estimate. Using exchange rates of six major currencies to illustrate the approach, we compare the Big Mac forecasts with those derived from a random walk and the CPI and find some support for our approach, especially at longer term horizons.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Menzie Chinn & Jeffery Frankel, 1995. "More survey data on exchange rate expectations: More currencies, more horizons, more tests," International Finance 9508003, EconWPA.
- Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
- repec:sae:niesru:v:167:y::i:1:p:106-112 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001.
"Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 5.
- Qi, Min & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Nonlinear prediction of exchange rates with monetary fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 623-640, December.
- Zhang, Gioqinang & Hu, Michael Y., 1998. "Neural network forecasting of the British Pound/US Dollar exchange rate," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 495-506, August.
- DavidC. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007.
"A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1336-1356, October.
- Parsley, David & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2004. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4486, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 10074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Kenneth W Clements & Yihui Lan & Shi Pei Seah, 2010.
"The Big Mac Index Two Decades On An Evaluation Of Burgernomics,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
10-14, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Kenneth W. Clements & Yihui Lan & Shi Pei Seah, 2012. "The Big Mac Index two decades on: an evaluation of burgernomics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 31-60, 01.
- Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2008.
"Exchange Rate Models Are Not As Bad As You Think,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 381-441
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2004.
"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on the economic value of predictability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 325-348, July.
- Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno & Abhay Abhayankar, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability," Working Papers wp04-01, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999.
"Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October.
- Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada, . "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 98-17, FEDEA.
- Callen, Jeffrey L & Kwan, Clarence C Y & Yip, Patrick C Y, 1985. "Foreign-Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Empirical Study Using Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(2), pages 149-55, April.
- Zellner, Arnold, 1978. "Estimation of functions of population means and regression coefficients including structural coefficients : A minimum expected loss (MELO) approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 127-158, October.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994.
"Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
- Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, . "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper 32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D. A. & Schipp, Bernhard, 1995. "The bias of OLS, GLS, and ZEF estimators in dynamic seemingly unrelated regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 241-266, September.
- Alan M. Taylor & Mark Taylor, 2004.
"The Purchasing Power Parity Debate,"
46, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Andrew Parkes & Andreas Savvides, 1999. "Purchasing power parity in the long run and structural breaks: evidence from real sterling exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 117-127.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:16:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
- Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Alberto Álvarez, 2005. "Genetic multi-model composite forecast for non-linear prediction of exchange rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 643-663, October.
- Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1994. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 759-70, November.
- Bewley, R. & Fiebig, D.G., 1989.
"Why Are Long-Run Parameter Estimates So Disparate?,"
89-3, New South Wales - School of Economics.
- Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G, 1990. "Why Are Long-run Parameter Estimates So Disparate?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 345-49, May.
- Lai, Kon S., 1990. "An evaluation of survey exchange rate forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-65, January.
- Robert E. Cumby, 1996. "Forecasting Exchange Rates and Relative Prices with the Hamburger Standard: Is What You Want What You Get With McParity?," NBER Working Papers 5675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Ong, Li Lian, 1997. "Burgernomics: the economics of the Big Mac standard," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 865-878, December.
- Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D. A. & Schipp, Bernhard, 1999. "Alternative bias approximations in first-order dynamic reduced form models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 909-928, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:7:p:1424-1437. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.