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Why Are Long-run Parameter Estimates So Disparate?

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  • Bewley, Ronald
  • Fiebig, Denzil G

Abstract

The specification of dynamic models typically leads to the estimation of impact responses. A transformation that allows for the direct estimation of the implied long-run parameters is discussed and the problem of choosing an appropriate estimator is addressed. Because the standard estimators of long-run responses involve ratios of regression coefficients, they typically do not possess finite sample moments. We argue that this existence of moments problem is fundamental to the observed disparity of long-run estimates. Simulation experiments are used to evaluate the properties of the standard implied estimator and a minimum expected loss estimator. Copyright 1990 by MIT Press.

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  • Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G, 1990. "Why Are Long-run Parameter Estimates So Disparate?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 345-349, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:72:y:1990:i:2:p:345-49
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    1. Kesavan, T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V. & Johnson, Stanley R., 1992. "Dynamics And Price Volatility In Farm-Retail Livestock Price Relationships," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Kenneth W. Clements & Yihui Lan & Xueyan Zhao, 2005. "The Demand for Vice: Inter-Commodity Interactions with Uncertainty," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-30, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Zhou, De & Yu, Xiaohua & Herzfeld, Thomas, 2015. "Dynamic food demand in urban China," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 27-44.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Lamb, Russell L., 1997. "Why are estimates of agricultural supply response so variable?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 357-373.
    5. T. Kesavan & Zuhair A. Hassan & Helen H. Jensen & Stanley R. Johnson, 1993. "Dynamics and Long-run Structure in U.S. Meat Demand," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 41(2), pages 139-153, July.
    6. Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
    7. Clements, Kenneth W. & Lan, Yihui, 2010. "A new approach to forecasting exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1424-1437, November.
    8. Yihui Lan, 2001. "The Long-Run Value of Currencies: A Big Mac Perspective," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 01-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    9. Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G., 1992. "Estimation of long-run responses in dynamic models with integrated data," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 539-544.
    10. Esho, Neil & Sharpe, Ian G., 1995. "Long-run estimates of technological change and scale economies in a dynamic framework: Australian permanent building societies, 1974-1990," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1135-1157, October.
    11. Shen, Edward Z. & Perloff, Jeffrey M., 2001. "Maximum entropy and Bayesian approaches to the ratio problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 289-313, September.
    12. Kim, Jae H. & Fraser, Iain & Hyndman, Rob J., 2011. "Improved interval estimation of long run response from a dynamic linear model: A highest density region approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 2477-2489, August.
    13. Yihui Lan, 2003. "The Long-Term Behaviour of Exchange Rates, Part II: Aspects of Exchange-Rate Economics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    14. Kenneth Clements & Yihui Lan, 2007. "Exchange rates, productivity, poverty and inequality," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 471-476.
    15. Neil Esho & Ian G. Sharpe, 1996. "X‐Efficiency of Australian Permanent Building Societies, 1974–1990," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(218), pages 246-259, September.
    16. Paul Gatward & Ian G. Sharpe, 1996. "Capital Structure Dynamics with Interrelated Adjustment: Australian Evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 21(2), pages 89-112, December.

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