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The Demand for Vice: Inter-Commodity Interactions with Uncertainty

  • Kenneth W Clements

    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)

  • Yihui Lan


    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)

  • Xueyan Zhao

    (Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University)

This paper analyses consumption patterns of vice -- marijuana, tobacco and alcohol. To deal with imperfect marijuana data, we exploit the interdependencies in the consumption of the three drugs identified in prior research, and introduce a Monte Carlo simulation procedure to formally account for the inherent uncertainty in marijuana-related data and parameters. To illustrate the application of the framework, we use Australian data to simulate the impact on the consumption of vice of a reduction in the price of marijuana; changes in pre-existing taxes on tobacco and alcohol; legalisation of marijuana, which is then subject to taxation; and a tax tradeoff involving the introduction of a revenue-neutral tax on marijuana that is offset by reduced alcohol taxation. The revenue-maximising tax rate for marijuana of about 50% is estimated to yield additional revenue of about 15% of the pre-existing proceeds from vice taxation. The role of uncertainty surrounding marijuana is highlighted by providing the entire probability distributions of all endogenous variables in a consistent multivariate framework.

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Paper provided by The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion / Working Papers with number 06-30.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:06-30
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  1. Duffy, Martyn, 1991. "Advertising and the Consumption of Tobacco and Alcoholic Drink: A System-Wide Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 38(4), pages 369-85, November.
  2. Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G, 1990. "Why Are Long-run Parameter Estimates So Disparate?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 345-49, May.
  3. Jenny Williams & Parvin Mahmoudi, 2004. "Economic Relationship Between Alcohol and Cannabis Revisited," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(248), pages 36-48, 03.
  4. Sandra L. Decker & Amy Ellen Schwartz, 2000. "Cigarettes and Alcohol: Substitutes or Complements?," NBER Working Papers 7535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Warner, Kenneth E., 2000. "The economics of smoking," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 29, pages 1539-1627 Elsevier.
  6. Henry Saffer & Frank Chaloupka, 1998. "Demographic Differentials in the Demand for Alcohol and Illicit Drugs," NBER Working Papers 6432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Clements, Kenneth W. & Selvanathan, Saroja, 1991. "The Economic Determinants Of Alcohol Consumption," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 35(02), August.
  8. Kenneth W. Clements & Yihui Lan & Xueyan Zhao, 2005. "The Demand for Vice: Inter-Commodity Interactions with Uncertainty," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-30, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  9. Griffiths, William E. & Zhao, Xueyan, 1999. "A Unified Approach To Sensitivity Analysis In Equilibrium Displacement Models: Comment," Working Papers 12950, University of New England, School of Economics.
  10. Kenneth W. Clements, 2002. "Three Facts About Marijuana Prices," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 02-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  11. Bajada, Christopher, 1999. "Estimates of the Underground Economy in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(231), pages 369-84, December.
  12. Cameron, Lisa & Williams, Jenny, 2001. "Cannabis, Alcohol and Cigarettes: Substitutes or Complements?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(236), pages 19-34, March.
  13. K.W. Clements & L.W. Johnson, 1982. "The Demand for Beer, Wine and Spirits: A system-wide analysis," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 82-12, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  14. Saffer, Henry & Chaloupka, Frank, 1999. "The Demand for Illicit Drugs," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(3), pages 401-11, July.
  15. Xueyan Zhao & Mark N. Harris, 2004. "Demand for Marijuana, Alcohol and Tobacco: Participation, Levels of Consumption and Cross-equation Correlations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 394-410, December.
  16. Clements, Kenneth W & Selvanathan, Antony & Selvanathan, Saroja, 1996. "Applied Demand Analysis: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(216), pages 63-81, March.
  17. Jeffrey A. Miron, 2003. "The Effect of Drug Prohibition on Drug Prices: Evidence from the Markets for Cocaine and Heroin," NBER Working Papers 9689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Craig A. Gallet & John A. List, 2003. "Cigarette demand: a meta-analysis of elasticities," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(10), pages 821-835.
  19. Matthew C. Farrelly & Jeremy W. Bray & Gary A. Zarkin & Brett W. Wendling & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, 1999. "The Effects of Prices and Policies on the Demand for Marijuana: Evidence from the National Household Surveys on Drug Abuse," NBER Working Papers 6940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Jones, Andrew M, 1989. "A Systems Approach to the Demand for Alcohol and Tobacco," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 85-105, April.
  21. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1997. "The Effects of Alcohol Prohibition on Alcohol Consumption," Papers 0078, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
  22. Brown, Alan & Deaton, Angus S, 1972. "Surveys in Applied Economics: Models of Consumer Behaviour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(328), pages 1145-1236, December.
  23. A. De Janvry & J. Bieri & A. Nuñez, 1972. "Estimation of Demand Parameters under Consumer Budgeting: An Application to Argentina," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 54(3), pages 422-430.
  24. Zhao, Xueyan & Griffiths, William E. & Griffith, Garry R. & Mullen, John D., 2000. "Probability distributions for economic surplus changes: the case of technical change in the Australian wool industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 44(1), March.
  25. repec:sae:niesru:v:167:y::i:1:p:106-112 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo, 1998. "Does increasing the beer tax reduce marijuana consumption?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 557-585, October.
  27. Frank J. Chaloupka & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & Matthew C. Farrelly & Lloyd D. Johnston & Patrick M. O'Malley, 1999. "Do Higher Cigarette Prices Encourage Youth to Use Marijuana?," NBER Working Papers 6939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Izan, Haji Y. & Clements, Kenneth W., 1979. "A cross-cross-section analysis of consumption patterns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 83-86.
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