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Probability distributions for economic surplus changes: the case of technical change in the Australian wool industry

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  • Zhao, Xueyan
  • Griffiths, William E.
  • Griffith, Garry R.
  • Mullen, John D.

Abstract

Mullen, Alston and Wohlgenant (1989) (MAW) examined the distribution of the benefits of technical change in the Australian wool industry. Their conclusions are revisited by examining the probability distributions of changes in the welfare measures, given uncertainty about their model parameters. Subjective probability distributions are specified for the parameters and correlations among some of the parameters are imposed. Hierarchical distributions are also used to model diverse views about the specification of the subjective distributions. A sensitivity elasticity is defined through the estimation of a response surface to measure the sensitivity of the estimated research benefits to individual parameters. MAW’s conclusions are found to be robust under the stochastic approach to sensitivity analysis demonstrated in this article.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Xueyan & Griffiths, William E. & Griffith, Garry R. & Mullen, John D., 2000. "Probability distributions for economic surplus changes: the case of technical change in the Australian wool industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 44(1), March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:117789
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. W. Freebairn & J. S. Davis & G. W. Edwards, 1983. "Distribution of Research Gains in Multistage Production Systems: Reply," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(2), pages 357-359.
    2. George C. Davis & Maria Cristina Espinoza, 1998. "A Unified Approach to Sensitivity Analysis in Equilibrium Displacement Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 868-879.
    3. Xueyan Zhao & John D. Mullen & Gary R. Griffith, 1997. "Functional Forms, Exogenous Shifts, and Economic Surplus Changes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1243-1251.
    4. Pannell, David J., 1997. "Sensitivity analysis of normative economic models: theoretical framework and practical strategies," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(2), May.
    5. Piggott, Roley R., 1992. "Some Old Truths Revisited," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 147251, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. J. M. Alston & G. M. Scobie, 1983. "Distribution of Research Gains in Multistage Production Systems: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(2), pages 353-356.
    7. William Griffiths & Xueyan Zhao, 2000. "A Unified Approach to Sensitivity Analysis in Equilibrium Displacement Models: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 236-240.
    8. J. W. Freebairn & J. S. Davis & G. W. Edwards, 1982. "Distribution of Research Gains in Multistage Production Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(1), pages 39-46.
    9. Hill, D. J. & Piggott, R.R. & Griffith, G.R., 1995. "Assessing the Impacts of Wool Promotion An Equilibrium Displacement Modelling Approach," 1995 Conference (39th), February 14-16, 1995, Perth, Australia 170852, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
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    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

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