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Probability distributions for economic surplus changes: the case of technical change in the Australian wool industry

  • Zhao, Xueyan
  • Griffiths, William E.
  • Griffith, Garry R.
  • Mullen, John D.

Mullen, Alston and Wohlgenant (1989) (MAW) examined the distribution of the benefits of technical change in the Australian wool industry. Their conclusions are revisited by examining the probability distributions of changes in the welfare measures, given uncertainty about their model parameters. Subjective probability distributions are specified for the parameters and correlations among some of the parameters are imposed. Hierarchical distributions are also used to model diverse views about the specification of the subjective distributions. A sensitivity elasticity is defined through the estimation of a response surface to measure the sensitivity of the estimated research benefits to individual parameters. MAW’s conclusions are found to be robust under the stochastic approach to sensitivity analysis demonstrated in this article.

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Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 44 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)

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Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:117789
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  1. Pannell, David J., 1997. "Sensitivity analysis of normative economic models: theoretical framework and practical strategies," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 139-152, May.
  2. Xueyan Zhao & John D. Mullen & Gary R. Griffith, 1997. "Functional Forms, Exogenous Shifts, and Economic Surplus Changes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1243-1251.
  3. George C. Davis & Maria Cristina Espinoza, 1998. "A Unified Approach to Sensitivity Analysis in Equilibrium Displacement Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 868-879.
  4. William Griffiths & Xueyan Zhao, 2000. "A Unified Approach to Sensitivity Analysis in Equilibrium Displacement Models: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 236-240.
  5. Piggott, Roley R., 1992. "Some Old Truths Revisited," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 147251, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
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