IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/50365.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Licensing and regulation of the cannabis market in England and Wales: Towards a cost-benefit analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Pudney, Stephen
  • Bryan, Mark
  • DelBono, Emilia

Abstract

This study sets out the potential costs and benefits of a move to a licensed, taxed and regulated cannabis market in England and Wales. It identifies at least 17 sources of social cost/benefit and gives indicative estimates of annual net external benefit for 13 of them. We stress the important role of product regulation as a means of controlling the chemical properties of the cannabis product. Research in neuroscience has demonstrated the harmful effects of one cannabis constituent (THC) and the protective role of another (CBD). Given the strong upward trend in THC and downward trend in CBD in the illegal cannabis market, the possibility of product regulation is a potential advantage of a licensed and regulated system of supply. Three alternative scenarios are used, based on different assumptions about the responsiveness of demand to the policy change. We find that net benefits are likely to be positive and modest in size, except in the case of highly responsive demand (where, however, there is a great deal of uncertainty associated with the estimates). By far the largest effect is projected to be the net budgetary improvement for government, from new tax revenue and reduced policing and criminal justice costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Pudney, Stephen & Bryan, Mark & DelBono, Emilia, 2013. "Licensing and regulation of the cannabis market in England and Wales: Towards a cost-benefit analysis," MPRA Paper 50365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50365
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50365/1/MPRA_paper_50365.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Devah Pager, 2003. "The mark of a criminal record," Natural Field Experiments 00319, The Field Experiments Website.
    2. Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & Michael Grossman & Frank J. Chaloupka & Patrick M. O'Malley & Lloyd D. Johnston & Matthew C. Farrelly, 2001. "Marijuana and Youth," NBER Chapters, in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 271-326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • R. L. Pacula & M. Grossman & F. J. Chaloupka & P. M. O'Malley & L. Johnston & M. C. Farrelly, 2000. "Marijuana and Youth," NBER Working Papers 7703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jeremy W. Bray & Gary A. Zarkin & Chris Ringwalt & Junfeng Qi, 2000. "The relationship between marijuana initiation and dropping out of high school," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 9-18, January.
    4. Ziggy MacDonald & Stephen Pudney, 2001. "Illicit drug use and labour market achievement: evidence from the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(13), pages 1655-1668.
    5. Cooter, Robert, 1998. "Expressive Law and Economics," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(2), pages 585-608, June.
    6. Tetsuji Yamada & Michael Kendix & Tadashi Yamada, 1993. "The Impact of Alcohol Consumption and Marijuana Use on High School Graduation," NBER Working Papers 4497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Frank J. Chaloupka & Adit Laixuthai, 1997. "Do Youths Substitute Alcohol and Marijuana? Some Econometric Evidence," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 253-276, Summer.
    8. Saffer, Henry & Chaloupka, Frank, 1999. "The Demand for Illicit Drugs," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(3), pages 401-411, July.
    9. Pinka Chatterji, 2006. "Illicit drug use and educational attainment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 489-511, May.
    10. Xueyan Zhao & Mark N. Harris, 2004. "Demand for Marijuana, Alcohol and Tobacco: Participation, Levels of Consumption and Cross‐equation Correlations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 394-410, December.
    11. Stephen Pudney, 2004. "Keeping off the grass? An econometric model of cannabis consumption in Britain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 435-453.
    12. van Ours, Jan C. & Williams, Jenny, 2007. "Cannabis prices and dynamics of cannabis use," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 578-596, May.
    13. J. Williams & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & Frank J. Chaloupka & Henry Wechsler, 2004. "Alcohol and marijuana use among college students: economic complements or substitutes?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(9), pages 825-843, September.
    14. van Ours, Jan C. & Williams, Jenny, 2009. "Why parents worry: Initiation into cannabis use by youth and their educational attainment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 132-142, January.
    15. Roebuck, M. Christopher & French, Michael T. & Dennis, Michael L., 2004. "Adolescent marijuana use and school attendance," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 133-141, April.
    16. Chris Wilkins & Paul Sweetsur, 2006. "Exploring the Structure of the Illegal Market for Cannabis," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(4), pages 547-562, December.
    17. Frank J. Chaloupka & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & Matthew C. Farrelly & Lloyd D. Johnston & Patrick M. O'Malley, 1999. "Do Higher Cigarette Prices Encourage Youth to Use Marijuana?," NBER Working Papers 6939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Kenneth W. Clements & Xueyan Zhao, 2005. "Economic Aspects of Marijuana," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-28, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    19. Andrew M. Gill & Robert J. Michaels, 1992. "Does Drug Use Lower Wages?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 45(3), pages 419-434, April.
    20. Charles A. Register & Donald R. Williams, 1992. "Labor Market Effects of Marijuana and Cocaine Use among Young Men," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 45(3), pages 435-448, April.
    21. D. Mark Anderson & Benjamin Hansen & Daniel I. Rees, 2013. "Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 333-369.
    22. Jeff DeSimone & Matthew C. Farrelly, 2003. "Price and Enforcement Effects on Cocaine and Marijuana Demand," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 98-115, January.
    23. Cooter, Robert, 1998. "Expressive Law and Economics," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt3w34j60j, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    24. Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo, 1998. "Does increasing the beer tax reduce marijuana consumption?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 557-585, October.
    25. Robert Kaestner, 1994. "New Estimates of the Effect of Marijuana and Cocaine Use on Wages," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 47(3), pages 454-470, April.
    26. Michael Grossman, 2004. "Individual Behaviors and Substance Use: The Role of Price," NBER Working Papers 10948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. MacDonald, Ziggy & Pudney, Stephen, 2000. "Illicit drug use, unemployment, and occupational attainment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1089-1115, November.
    28. Stephen Pudney, 2003. "The Road to Ruin? Sequences of Initiation to Drugs and Crime in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 182-198, March.
    29. J. Williams, 2004. "The effects of price and policy on marijuana use: what can be learned from the Australian experience?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 123-137, February.
    30. Charles Register & Donald Williams & Paul Grimes, 2001. "Adolescent Drug Use and Educational Attainment," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18.
    31. Daniel F. McCaffrey & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & Bing Han & Phyllis Ellickson, 2010. "Marijuana use and high school dropout: the influence of unobservables," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1281-1299, November.
    32. Jan C. Van Ours, 2007. "The Effects of Cannabis Use on Wages of Prime‐age Males," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(5), pages 619-634, October.
    33. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
    34. Sara Markowitz & John Tauras, 2006. "Even For Teenagers, Money Does Not Grow on Trees: Teenage Substance Use and Budget Constraints," NBER Working Papers 12300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Lisa Cameron & Jenny Williams, 2001. "Cannabis, Alcohol and Cigarettes: Substitutes or Complements?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(236), pages 19-34, March.
    36. Henry Saffer & Dhaval Dave, 2002. "Alcohol consumption and alcohol advertising bans," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(11), pages 1325-1334.
    37. Kaestner, Robert, 1991. "The Effect of Illicit Drug Use on the Wages of Young Adults," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(4), pages 381-412, October.
    38. Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & Karen E. Ross & Jeanne Ringel, 2003. "Does Marijuana Use Impair Human Capital Formation?," NBER Working Papers 9963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132-132.
    40. Hernandez, Monica & Pudney, Stephen, 2011. "What you don't see can't hurt you? Panel data analysis and the dynamics of unobservable factors," ISER Working Paper Series 2011-13, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    41. Callum, Christine & Boyle, Seán & Sandford, Amanda, 2011. "Estimating the cost of smoking to the NHS in England and the impact of declining prevalence," Health Economics, Policy and Law, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 489-508, October.
    42. W. M. Gorman, 1980. "A Possible Procedure for Analysing Quality Differentials in the Egg Market," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(5), pages 843-856.
    43. S. E. Pudney, 1981. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of a Characteristics Model of Demand," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 417-433.
    44. Jeffrey A. Miron, 2003. "The Effect of Drug Prohibition on Drug Prices: Evidence from the Markets for Cocaine and Heroin," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 522-530, August.
    45. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
    46. Farrelly, Matthew C. & Bray, Jeremy W. & Zarkin, Gary A. & Wendling, Brett W., 2001. "The joint demand for cigarettes and marijuana: evidence from the National Household Surveys on Drug Abuse," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 51-68, January.
    47. Brand, Sam & Price, Richard, 2000. "The economic and social costs of crime," MPRA Paper 74968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. Saffer, Henry & Chaloupka, Frank, 2000. "The effect of tobacco advertising bans on tobacco consumption," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1117-1137, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan C. Ours & Jenny Williams, 2015. "Cannabis Use And Its Effects On Health, Education And Labor Market Success," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 993-1010, December.
    2. Carlos Casacuberta & Mariana Gerstenblüth & Patricia Triunfo, 2012. "Aportes del análisis económico al estudio de las drogas," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0112, Department of Economics - dECON.
    3. van Ours, Jan C. & Williams, Jenny, 2007. "Cannabis prices and dynamics of cannabis use," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 578-596, May.
    4. D. Mark Anderson & Benjamin Hansen & Daniel I. Rees, 2015. "Medical Marijuana Laws and Teen Marijuana Use," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 495-528.
    5. van Ours, Jan C. & Williams, Jenny, 2009. "Why parents worry: Initiation into cannabis use by youth and their educational attainment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 132-142, January.
    6. Michael T. French & Ioana Popovici, 2011. "That instrument is lousy! In search of agreement when using instrumental variables estimation in substance use research," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 127-146, February.
    7. Anne Bretteville-Jensen, 2006. "Drug Demand – Initiation, Continuation and Quitting," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(4), pages 491-516, December.
    8. Mezza, Alvaro & Buchinsky, Moshe, 2021. "Illegal drugs, education, and labor market outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 454-484.
    9. Deborah A. Cobb-Clark & Sonja C. Kassenboehmer & Trinh Le & Duncan McVicar & Rong Zhang, 2015. "‘High’-School: The Relationship between Early Marijuana Use and Educational Outcomes," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(293), pages 247-266, June.
    10. Kenneth W. Clements & Xueyan Zhao, 2005. "Economic Aspects of Marijuana," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-28, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    11. Adam J. Davis & Karl R. Geisler & Mark W. Nichols, 2016. "The price elasticity of marijuana demand: evidence from crowd-sourced transaction data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1171-1192, June.
    12. Preety Ramful & Xueyan Zhao, 2009. "Participation in marijuana, cocaine and heroin consumption in Australia: a multivariate probit approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 481-496.
    13. van Ours, J.C., 2005. "Cannabis, Cocaine and the Wages of Prime Age Males," Discussion Paper 2005-14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. Chu, Yu-Wei Luke & Gershenson, Seth, 2018. "High times: The effect of medical marijuana laws on student time use," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 142-153.
    15. Pacula Rosalie Liccardo & Kilmer Beau & Grossman Michael & Chaloupka Frank J, 2010. "Risks and Prices: The Role of User Sanctions in Marijuana Markets," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, February.
    16. Sara Markowitz & John Tauras, 2009. "Substance use among adolescent students with consideration of budget constraints," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 423-446, December.
    17. William Greene & Mark N. Harris & Preety Srivastava & Xueyan Zhao, 2018. "Misreporting and econometric modelling of zeros in survey data on social bads: An application to cannabis consumption," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 372-389, February.
    18. Beau Kilmer & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, 2010. "Preventing Drug Use," NBER Chapters, in: Targeting Investments in Children: Fighting Poverty When Resources are Limited, pages 181-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. D. Mark Anderson & Benjamin Hansen & Daniel I. Rees, 2013. "Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 333-369.
    20. Williams, Jenny & Bretteville-Jensen, Anne Line, 2014. "Does liberalizing cannabis laws increase cannabis use?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 20-32.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cannabis; regulation; legalization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Amanda Feilding in Wikipedia English

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50365. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.