Measuring the Market Size for Cannabis: A New Approach Using Forensic Economics
Quantifying the market size for cannabis is important given vigorous policy debates about how to intervene in this market. We develop a new approach to measuring the size of the cannabis market using forensic economics. The key insight is that cannabis consumption often requires the use of complementary legal inputs: roll-your-own tobacco and rolling papers. The forensic approach specifies how legal and illegal inputs are combined in the production of hand-rolled cigarettes and cannabis joints. These input relationships, along with market adding-up conditions, can then be used to infer the size of the cannabis market. We prove proof-of-concept that this approach can be readily calibrated using: (i) point-of-sales data on the legal inputs of roll-your-own tobacco and rolling papers; (ii) input parameter estimates drawn from a wide-ranging interdisciplinary evidence base. We then implement the approach using data from 2008-9. For those years, the forensic estimates for the UK cannabis market are near double those derived from standard demand-side approaches. We make precise what drives the measurement gap between methods by establishing: (i) the parameter adjustments needed in demand-side approaches to match the forensic measure; (ii) the changes in methodology to the forensic approach needed to match the demand-side estimate. Our analysis develops an agenda on measurement and data collection that allows for credible cost-benefit analysis of policy interventions in illicit drug markets.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2017|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gary S. Becker, 1974.
"Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach,"
NBER Chapters,in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary S. Becker, 1968. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 169-169.
- Sandip Sukhtankar, 2012. "Sweetening the Deal? Political Connections and Sugar Mills in India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 43-63, July.
- Kelly, Elaine & Rasul, Imran, 2014. "Policing cannabis and drug related hospital admissions: Evidence from administrative records," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 89-114.
- Kelly, Elaine & Rasul, Imran, 2014. "Policing Cannabis and Drug Related Hospital Admissions: Evidence from Administrative Records," CEPR Discussion Papers 9856, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephen Pudney, 2007. "Rarely pure and never simple: extracting the truth from self-reported data on substance use," CeMMAP working papers CWP11/07, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Matthew C. Farrelly & Jeremy W. Bray & Gary A. Zarkin & Brett W. Wendling & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, 1999. "The Effects of Prices and Policies on the Demand for Marijuana: Evidence from the National Household Surveys on Drug Abuse," NBER Working Papers 6940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12161. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.