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Real exchange rate forecasting: a calibrated half-life PPP model can beat the random walk

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  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele
  • Rubaszek, Michał
  • Muck, Jakub

Abstract

This paper brings three new insights into the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) debate. First, we show that a half-life PPP model is able to forecast real exchange rates (RER) better than the random walk (RW) model at both short and long-term horizons. Secondly, we find that this result holds only if the speed of adjustment to the sample mean is calibrated at reasonable values rather than estimated. Finally, we find that it is also preferable to calibrate, rather than to elicit as a prior, the parameter determining the speed of adjustment to PPP. JEL Classification: C32, F31, F37

Suggested Citation

  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Rubaszek, Michał & Muck, Jakub, 2013. "Real exchange rate forecasting: a calibrated half-life PPP model can beat the random walk," Working Paper Series 1576, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131576
    Note: 343031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Ca' Zorzi & Alexander Chudik, 2013. "Spatial considerations on the PPP debate," Globalization Institute Working Papers 138, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. M S Eichenbaum & B K Johannsen & S T Rebelo, 2021. "Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(1), pages 192-228.
    3. Adrian Marek Burda & Blazej Mazur & Mateusz Pawel Pipien, 2017. "Forecasting EUR/PLN Exchange Rate: the Role of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis in ESTVEC Models," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17, pages 97-114.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia & Zhang, Yi, 2019. "Exchange rate prediction redux: New models, new data, new currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 332-362.
    5. Zorzi, Michele Ca’ & Rubaszek, Michał, 2020. "Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    6. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2017. "Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 127-146.
    7. Piotr Dybka, 2020. "One model or many? Exchange rates determinants and their predictive capabilities," Working Papers 2020-053, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    8. Michał Chojnowski & Piotr Dybka, 2017. "Is Exchange Rate Moody? Forecasting Exchange Rate with Google Trends Data," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, June.
    9. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "An ARIMA analysis of the Indian Rupee/USD exchange rate in India," MPRA Paper 96908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Maria Eleftheriou & Nikolas A. Müller-Plantenberg, 2018. "The Purchasing Power Parity Fallacy: Time to Reconsider the PPP Hypothesis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 481-515, July.
    11. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2021. "Nonlinearities and Asymmetric Adjustment to PPP in an Exchange Rate Model with Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 8921, CESifo.
    12. Mijakovic, Andrej & Rubaszek, Michał & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Cap, Adam, 2020. "The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rate models," Working Paper Series 2358, European Central Bank.
    13. Reaz, Md & Mahat, Fauziah & Dahir, Ahmed Mohamed & Sahabuddin, Mohammad & Al Mahi, Abu Saad Md Masnun, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and financial performance of agriculture firms in Malaysia: An empirical analysis using GARCH, wavelet and system GMM," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 13(3).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate forecasting; half-life; purchasing power parity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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