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Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models

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  • Ca’ Zorzi, Michele
  • Kolasa, Marcin
  • Rubaszek, Michał

Abstract

We run an exchange rate forecasting “horse race”, which highlights that three principles hold. First, forecasts should not replicate the high volatility of exchange rates observed in sample. Second, models should exploit the mean reversion of the real exchange rate over long horizons. Third, they should account for the international price co-movement seen in the data. Abiding by the first two principles an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model performs well in forecasting the real but not the nominal exchange rate. Only approaches that conform to all three principles tend to outperform the random walk.

Suggested Citation

  • Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2017. "Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 127-146.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:127-146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.03.011
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bis:bisbps:95 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:cpn:umkdem:v:17:y:2017:p:97-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Marcin Kolasa & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Does foreign sector help forecast domestic variables in DSGE models?," EcoMod2016 9393, EcoMod.
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks," Working Paper Series 2082, European Central Bank.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. repec:eee:renene:v:109:y:2017:i:c:p:422-433 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Michał Rubaszek & Paweł Skrzypczyński & Grzegorz Koloch, 2010. "Forecasting the Polish Zloty with Non-Linear Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(2), pages 151-167, March.
    8. Martin Eichenbaum & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Sergio Rebelo, 2017. "Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 23158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Zorzi, Michele Ca' & Rubaszek, Michał, 2018. "Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin," Working Paper Series 2151, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Exchange rates; New open economy macroeconomics; Mean reversion;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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