IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Persistence in law of one price deviations: Evidence from micro-data

  • Crucini, Mario J.
  • Shintani, Mototsugu

Using an extensive micro-price panel, we find a positive cross-sectional relationship between LOP persistence and the distribution margin, which we measure using sectoral U.S. data, as suggested by the classical dichotomy. The median level of persistence (across goods) is low, and there is no evidence of a border effect: the half-life of a deviation is about 19 months across OECD cities and just 1 month lower across cities in the U.S. Aggregating our micro-data using a variety of weighting methods shows PPP persistence to be in the range of 1-2 years, over the 1990-2005 period. These results challenge three widely held views: (i) the classical dichotomy is irrelevant; (ii) high persistence is a robust feature of aggregate real exchange rates; and (iii) border crossings necessarily generate greater real exchange rate persistence.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBW-4RHP9D9-1/1/d81d7170ec31ae4175ad7afe247bd2a1
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 629-644

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:55:y:2008:i:3:p:629-644
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-60, June.
  2. Chi-Young Choi & Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to PPP Convergence in Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 10614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  4. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2004. "U.S. Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Relative Price Fluctuations," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000587, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Crownover, Collin & Pippenger, John & Steigerwald, Douglas G., 1996. "Testing for absolute purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 783-796, October.
  6. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December.
  7. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
  9. Jonathan Haskel & Holger C. Wolf, 2001. "The Law of One Price - A Case Study," CESifo Working Paper Series 428, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Frank Verboven, 2001. "Market Integration and Convergence to the Law of One Price: Evidence from the European Car Market," NBER Working Papers 8402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2000. "The Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Paradigm," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0017, Econometric Society.
  12. Charles Engel, 1992. "Real Exchange Rates and Relative Prices: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 4231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Mario J. Crucini & Chris I. Telmer & Marios Zachariadis, 2005. "Understanding European Real Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 724-738, June.
  14. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  15. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2002. "Persistence in Law-Of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence from Micro-Data," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0222, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Jul 2004.
  16. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2002. "Price Index Convergence Among United States Cities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1081-1099, November.
  18. Kenneth A. Froot & Michael Kim & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Law of One Price Over 700 Years," NBER Working Papers 5132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0307, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  20. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On cross-country differences in the persistence of real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 375-397, April.
  21. Lars E.O. Svensson & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Excess Capacity, Monopolistic Competition, and International Transmission of Monetary Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Isard, Peter, 1977. "How Far Can We Push the "Law of One Price"?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 942-48, December.
  23. David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Convergence to the Law of One Price Without Trade Barriers or Currency Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
  25. Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based-Stabilizations," NBER Working Papers 7862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. T. W.Swan, 1960. "Economic Control In A Dependent Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 51-66, 03.
  27. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
  28. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2005. "Do Panels Help Solve the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 410-415, October.
  29. DavidC. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1336-1356, October.
  30. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  31. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Charles Engel, 2004. "Does "Aggregation Bias" Explain the PPP Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 10304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Masao Ogaki & Jaebeom Kim, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity for Traded and Non-traded Goods: A Structural Error Correction Model Approach," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 515, Econometric Society.
  33. Jaebeom Kim, 2004. "Half-lives of Deviations from PPP: Contrasting Traded and Nontraded Components of Consumption Baskets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 162-168, 02.
  34. W. E. G. Salter, 1959. "Internal And External Balance: The Role Op Price And Expenditure Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(71), pages 226-238, 08.
  35. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
  36. Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Pricing in International Markets: Lessons from The Economist," Working Papers 94-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  37. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
  38. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-052, University of California at Berkeley.
  39. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
  40. Christian Ahlin & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Menu Costs and Markov Inflation: A Theoretical Revision with New Evidence," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0610, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  41. Rogers, John H. & Jenkins, Michael, 1995. "Haircuts or hysteresis? Sources of movements in real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 339-360, May.
  42. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan C. Stockman, 1983. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 1230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Sanyal, Kalyan K & Jones, Ronald W, 1982. "The Theory of Trade in Middle Products," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 16-31, March.
  44. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
  45. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1988. "Testing for individual effects in autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 297-307, November.
  46. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:55:y:2008:i:3:p:629-644. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.